Application of Early Warning Systems With Leading Indicators in Financial Crises Forecast: The Example of Turkey Years 2016-2019

Abstract

Financial crises have been an issue that has been studied frequently in terms of their prediction and anticipation and is of importance for both countries and international organizations. Countries with emerging economies such as Turkey are deeply affected by the financial crisis. For this reason, a lot of studies have been done on this subject in recent years and the possible effects of the crisis have been tried to be eliminated. For many years Turkey's economy is in a country struggling with crises. Perceiving a crisis signal in terms of the real economy; is important both in order to improve the indicators causing the crisis, to take measures, and to prevent the crisis from affecting the real economy deeply. Within the scope of this study, it has been tried to explain whether there is a crisis signal with some leading indicators selected by choosing the most used variables by making a literature review between the years 2016-2019. With the index created in the study, the crisis signal was tried to be perceived. With the result obtained, an approach to the crisis will be formed. The aim of this study is to test whether the indicators discussed to give a crisis signal for Turkey.