Application of machine learning and deep learning for predicting groundwater levels in the West Coast Aquifer System, South Africa

Abstract

Groundwater models are valuable tools to quantify the response of groundwater level to hydrological stresses induced by climate variability and groundwater extraction. These models strive for sustainable groundwater management by balancing recharge, discharge, and natural processes, with groundwater level serving as a critical response variable. While traditional numerical models are labour-intensive, machine learning and deep learning offer a data-driven alternative, learning from historical data to predict groundwater level variations. The groundwater level in wells is typically recorded as continuous groundwater level time series data and is essential for implementing managed aquifer recharge within a particular region. Machine learning and deep learning are essential tools to generate a data-driven approach to modeling an area, and there is a need to understand if they are the most suitable tools to improve model prediction. To address this objective, the study evaluates two machine learning algorithms - Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM); and two deep learning algorithms - Simple Recurrent Neural Network (SimpleRNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) for modeling groundwater level changes in the West Coast Aquifer System of South Africa. Analysis of regression error metrics on the test dataset revealed that SVM outperformed the other models in terms of the root mean square error, whereas random forest had the best performance in terms of the MAE. In the accuracy analysis of predicted groundwater levels, SVM achieved the highest accuracy with an MAE of 0.356 m and an RMSE of 0.372 m. The study concludes that machine learning and deep learning are effective tools for improved modeling and prediction of groundwater level. Further research can incorporate more detailed geologic information of the study area for enhanced interpretation.