Application of Nowcasting Method to Assess Significant Earthquake Potential in North China

Abstract

Earthquakes pose significant risks and challenges to human survival and societal development. Effectively assessing the imminent risk of strong earthquakes is crucial for societal and regional resilience. While the Sichuan and Yunnan regions of China are known for frequent earthquake activity, the North China region, despite historically fewer earthquakes, includes key areas such as Beijing, the capital of China, necessitating effective earthquake risk prevention. The Nowcasting method, successfully applied in the United States, Japan, and several big cities, offers a promising approach to earthquake risk assessment. This paper applies the Nowcasting method to the North China region, aiming to enhance the assessment of strong earthquake risks in this region, such as the Dezhou 5.5 earthquake and Dalian 4.6 earthquake, and investigate the effect on its performance from the aftershock events using the declustering method. In the end, we give a credible and scientific forward forecasting result after the last target earthquake in this region. Through comprehensive analysis, this study demonstrates the method’s effectiveness and emphasizes its potential for improving earthquake preparedness in regions with significant urban infrastructure but relatively lower seismic activity.