Application of species distribution models in stream ecosystems: the challenges of spatial and temporal scale, environmental predictors and species occurrence data

Domisch, Sami; Jähnig, Sonja C.; Simaika, John P.; Kuemmerlen, Mathias; Stoll, Stefan

doi:10.1127/fal/2015/0627

Cited by 82 publications

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“…This requires a model of the expected response of the community to the implemented restoration measures. Domisch, J€ ahnig, Simaika, Kuemmerlen, & Stoll, 2015), or community descriptors (J€ ahnig et al, 2010;Leps, Tonkin, Dahm, Haase, & Sundermann, 2015;Paillex, Castella, Zu Ermgassen, & Aldridge, 2015) or (3) a mechanistic model that combines prior knowledge about ecosystem structure and functioning (e.g. Domisch, J€ ahnig, Simaika, Kuemmerlen, & Stoll, 2015), or community descriptors (J€ ahnig et al, 2010;Leps, Tonkin, Dahm, Haase, & Sundermann, 2015;Paillex, Castella, Zu Ermgassen, & Aldridge, 2015) or (3) a mechanistic model that combines prior knowledge about ecosystem structure and functioning (e.g.…”

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Mechanistic modelling for predicting the effects of restoration, invasion and pollution on benthic macroinvertebrate communities in rivers

et al. 2017

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Habitat destruction, biological invasions and water quality deterioration are serious threats to native communities and can lead to modifications in community composition and structure, and in ecosystem function. To predict the consequences of river restoration, biological invasions and water quality change in the taxonomic composition of macroinvertebrate communities in rivers, we extended the mechanistic model Streambugs, which describes growth, respiration and death of interacting taxa under given environmental conditions. The model parameterised with prior knowledge on macroinvertebrate traits had already a reasonable explanatory power for data from restored and unrestored sites in two Swiss rivers. As anticipated, the explanatory power of the model was increased further by incorporation of learning from observations through Bayesian inference. The predictive application of the model to changes in water quality and invasions by alien species indicated the importance of integrative planning of management measures: although invasive species are predicted to be able to colonise restored and unrestored sites and replace native species, both invasion of alien species and subsequent exclusion of native taxa is predicted to be reduced when water quality improves. The unavoidable simplification in the mathematical description of complex interactions in the macroinvertebrate community results in predictions that are uncertain. Our modelling techniques make the best attempt to quantify this uncertainty. Despite the uncertainty that always calls for more research, this study makes a considerable step towards improving our understanding of community structure and supporting river management through mechanistic, predictive modelling of macroinvertebrate communities in rivers under changing environmental conditions.

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Mechanistic modelling for predicting the effects of restoration, invasion and pollution on benthic macroinvertebrate communities in rivers

et al. 2017

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“…Given the contrasting strengths of the two classes of models, it might be ideal to try to join them into a single model (Domisch, Jähnig, Simaika, Kuemmerlen, & Stoll, ; Talluto et al, ). Unfortunately the predictive power of the alternative variable sets was dependent on the spatial scale and density at which the background environment was sampled (Bayly, ).…”

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Niche models do not predict experimental demography but both suggest dispersal limitation across the northern range limit of the scarlet monkeyflower (Erythranthe cardinalis)

Bayly

Angert

2019

Journal of Biogeography

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Aim Geographical ranges largely reflect the projection of species’ environmental niches onto the landscape, but dispersal limitation can cause ranges to fall short of niche limits. Understanding the prevalence of niche and dispersal limitation is a fundamental problem in ecology and biogeography, and it is relevant in predicting climate‐driven range shifts. Dispersal limitation could also cause widely used ecological niche models (ENM), which relate records of occurrence to environmental predictors, to underestimate properties of the ecological niche. Using a combination of experimental transplants and ENM, we tested for (a) dispersal and niche limitation across a species’ range boundary and (b) associations between ENM predictions and population performance. Location Oregon, USA. Taxon Scarlet monkeyflower (Erythranthe cardinalis). Methods We created experimental populations within and beyond the northern range edge and used integral projection models (IPM) to infer potential population growth trajectories. We also built two classes of ecological niche models (ENM), one using climatic predictors and the other using fine‐scale stream habitat variables, to estimate habitat suitability across the northern range edge. Finally, we tested whether higher ENM suitability scores predict greater demographic performance. Results Consistent with dispersal limitation, experimental populations beyond the range were projected to persist or spread in three of four sites (compared to two of four sites within the range) and stream habitat ENM projected abundant suitable stream microhabitat within the species’ thermal envelope beyond the range edge. In contrast, climatic ENM suggested decreasing habitat suitability and availability at the northern range edge. Unexpectedly, higher climatic ENM scores were associated with negative population growth rates, while higher stream habitat ENM scores were unrelated to population growth. Main conclusions The northern range edge falls short of the species niche limit and is instead limited by dispersal into suitable habitat. Dispersal limitation caused correlative niche models to underestimate the climatic niche and to poorly predict demographic performance in a short‐term field study. These results highlight key challenges to applying predictions from correlative ENM to understanding range and niche limits.

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“…Macroecological predictors in freshwater studies, represented here by air temperature and slope, had an intermediate influence in shaping the distribution of macroinvertebrate species. While such predictors are valuable in assessing the “big picture” on coarse spatial grains (Domisch, Jähnig, et al, ), characterization of in‐stream habitat can be further improved by adding hydrological regime and anthropogenic water usage (Figure ). Thus, our study shows that accounting for the composite of scale‐dependent characteristics yields valuable information regarding freshwater species occurrence patterns, as done here with climate (basin), hydrology and water use (catchment), and local topography (site) (Poff, , Thorp, , Domisch, Jähnig, et al, ).…”

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confidence: 99%

Using streamflow observations to estimate the impact of hydrological regimes and anthropogenic water use on European stream macroinvertebrate occurrences

et al. 2017

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Understanding the drivers of stream macroinvertebrate distribution patterns—the most diverse animal group in freshwater ecosystems—is a major goal in freshwater biogeography. Climate and topography have been shown to explain species' distributions at continental scales, but the contribution of natural and anthropogenically altered streamflow is often omitted in large‐scale analyses due to the lack of appropriate data. We test how macroinvertebrate occurrences can be linked to streamflow observations and evaluate the relative importance of streamflow regimes and water use for macroinvertebrate occurrences from 19 orders across Europe. We first paired species sampling locations with hydrological gauging stations considering 5 combinations of the geographic distance and difference in flow accumulation (upstream contributing area). We then used Generalized Linear Models to assess the influence of the streamflow regime, simulated water use, and climate and topography on the occurrence of macroinvertebrates. The pairing method that assigned species records to the closest gauging station in terms of both distance and flow accumulation performed best. Most of the species studied occurred preferentially in river habitats with low mean annual streamflow and streamflow variability, high winter streamflow, and low levels of water withdrawals for irrigation or manufacturing. We conclude that flow accumulation is a useful proxy to evaluate the proximity of species records to gauging stations, omitting species records that do not belong to a given stream reach. The strong contribution of streamflow and water use indicators on macroinvertebrate occurrences underline their importance for yielding robust occurrence estimates.

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Application of species distribution models in stream ecosystems: the challenges of spatial and temporal scale, environmental predictors and species occurrence data

Cited by 82 publications

References 0 publications

Mechanistic modelling for predicting the effects of restoration, invasion and pollution on benthic macroinvertebrate communities in rivers

Mechanistic modelling for predicting the effects of restoration, invasion and pollution on benthic macroinvertebrate communities in rivers

Niche models do not predict experimental demography but both suggest dispersal limitation across the northern range limit of the scarlet monkeyflower (Erythranthe cardinalis)

Using streamflow observations to estimate the impact of hydrological regimes and anthropogenic water use on European stream macroinvertebrate occurrences

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