Application of the Support Vector Regression Method with the Grid Search Algorithm to Predict Movement Gold Price

Abstract

Gold is an investment with the smallest risk because it can be sold anytime and anywhere. In Indonesia, gold bullion as an investment product is known for its purity level of 99.99%, namely gold bullion produced by PT. Aneka Tambang (Antam) through its Precious Metals business unit. Apart from its pure production, Antam gold bullion is easier to resell anytime and anywhere because it has an official certificate from the international gold standardisation institution, namely LBMA (London Bullion Market Association), to more easily estimate the value of gold bullion when sold. To overcome this, predictions of future gold prices are needed. In this research, one of the prediction methods is Support Vector Regression with the Grid Search Algorithm. In this method this method will be used to predict the price of gold, which aims to predict and find out the price of gold one year in the future to produce a level accuracy (MAPE) of 5.43% and the prediction of gold prices increasing from 2023-June-01 to 2024-March-23 while experiencing a decline starting in 2024-March-24. Research by examining the relationship between variables, which emphasises data consisting of numbers so that it is analysed based on statistical procedures using the Support Vector Regression method with data sourced from the daily price of gold bullion through PT. Gallery 24 Pawnshops, North Sumatra. Where this method is very well used in predicting by choosing the best kernel used is the linear kernel because, from these three kernels, the best hyperparameters were obtained for predicting gold price movements using a linear kernel with a division for training and testing data of 60: 40. The MAPE value obtained was 5.43.