Applying Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) with stakeholders to explore and codesign options for water resource interventions

Singto, Chakaphon; Fleskens, Luuk; Vos, Jeroen; Quinn, Claire H.

doi:10.1007/s40899-020-00383-x

Cited by 8 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…A new insight of this study is that the elicitation of local knowledge and perceptions with specific attention to local stakeholders in conflict situations helped building trust while creating the BBN. Based on: Singto, C., de Vries, M., Hofstede, G.J., Fleskens, L., (2020). Ex ante impact assessment of reservoir construction projects for different stakeholders using agent-based modeling: Submitted to: Water Resources Management.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…ABM appears to be a useful tool to explore a multitude of future income scenarios, and the variations in outcomes for benefitting and affected farmers. Based on: Singto, C., Fleskens, L., Vos, J. (2020).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The current impasse in the two observed consultation processes suggests that a profound participation process is difficult to organize in a conflict situation, despite being indispensable for sustainable, equitable and viable water resource interventions. Based on: Singto, C., Fleskens, L., Vos, J., & Quinn, C. (2020). Applying Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) with stakeholders to explore and codesign options for water resource interventions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A participatory approach to model design attempts to undertake participatory activities to bring together stakeholders (including affected stakeholders) to inform model development (Pahl-Wostl, 2002;Singto et al, 2020). The participatory development of scenario modeling approaches can be a powerful tool to propose solutions for decision-making (Sun and Muller, 2013).…”

Section: Ex-ante Assessment Of Farmer's Behaviors By Agent-based Modementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Socioeconomic data were based on the Wang Hip dam project EIA report (RID, 2016) and market crop prices (Office of Agricultural Economics, 2017). Local knowledge was mobilized during workshops and in-depth interviews conducted over the period 2016-2019 with policymakers and benefiting and affected farmers (Singto et al, 2018;Singto et al, 2020).…”

Section: Purpose and Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Participatory integrated assessment of water resource projects in Thailand

Singto¹

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for this renewed urgency to build dams is the need for hydropower for growing economies. Construction is often legitimized by referring to hydropower's relatively low carbon emission in comparison with fossil-fuel based energy generation (Crow Miller et al., 2017). The need for buffering for climatic variability also contributes to increased demand for dams (Kurukulasuriya & Rosenthal. 2013). In Thailand, many dams have been constructed for hydropower and, to a lesser extent, for irrigation, industry and domestic water supply. These include 97 large dams (>100 hm 3) with a total of 73,944 hm 3 storage that have been built to irrigate 2.8 million ha (e.g. Srinagarind, Bhumipol, Sirikit, Vaijiralongkorn, and Rat Cha Prapa). However most dams are medium (860 projects with 5,180 hm 3 providing irrigation water for 1.1 million ha) and small (19,392 projects with 3,288 hm 3 to irrigate an area of 5.4 million ha) (RID, 2018c) in size. The Royal Irrigation Department (RID) is the main government agency responsible for the planning and construction of small-, medium-, and large-sized dams. In particular, RID proposes suitable interventions to the Thai government and operates the policy process of dam construction for multiple purposes (RID, 2010; 2018a). The Energy Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) is responsible for large dams that mainly have a hydropower purpose. Despite the many existing dams, in many regions of Thailand the agriculture and industry sectors require increased water supply. Building of both large and smaller dams has encountered resistance in Thailand from local communities. Many massive protests have been organized, leading to extended delays and even cancelation of planned dam projects. In Thailand, almost no land is available for resettlement of affected communities. Thus, affected families are mostly compensated with cash payments. One problem is that compensation according to the official rules often is insufficient to sustain the livelihoods of affected families. This is due, partly, to lack of title deeds for the cultivated land, and partly to land value only being compensated in accordance with the relatively low registered land prices. Apart from the difficulties with the compensation, more profound disagreements and grievances exist, related to mistrust of the government, different visions for development, and differences in valuing of local land, crops, property and ecosystems (see examples from Thailand:

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ex-ante Assessment Of Farmer's Behaviors By Agent-based Modementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Purpose and Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Participatory integrated assessment of water resource projects in Thailand

Singto¹

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Ex Ante Impact Assessment of Reservoir Construction Projects for Different Stakeholders Using Agent-Based Modeling

Singto

Vries

Hofstede

et al. 2021

Water Resour Manage

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Reservoir construction projects are frequently met with fierce opposition. Consequently, to mitigate any potential negative impacts, environmental and social impact assessments are usually mandatory. Stakeholder perspectives are often only implicit in such assessments, and the medium-term effects of mitigating actions are assessed at the aggregate level, which fails to take into account unequal disaggregated impacts. In this paper, we design and apply an agent-based model (ABM) built on stakeholder information to conduct an ex ante assessment of the impact of a reservoir construction project in southern Thailand over a 30-year period for individual agents. We incorporate stakeholders’ knowledge into the ABM on the basis of primary data collected during the 2016–2018 period, including workshops with affected farmers to assess their interests and concerns, in-depth interviews with farmers in nearby districts to assess farming behaviors, and the expert opinions of policymakers to assess the relevant regulations and processes. In a case study for which the model was established, the results predict that, overall, farmers will have more farm income if the dam is built. We find that affected people require a standard of living similar to that provided by their previous livelihood as soon as possible after resettlement. By simulating the impacts on individual agents, we conclude that the compensation for relocation offered to affected farmers is not sufficient for sustainable resettlements. Facilitating compensation may increase the speed of project implementation and lead to better outcomes for everyone, including affected communities, whereas failure to reshape the current compensation policy leaves everyone more disadvantaged.

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System Thinking for Sustainable Water Management: The Use of System Tools in Sustainability Transitions

Wan Rosely,

Voulvoulis

2024

Water Resour Manage

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Managing water resources to meet current social, economic, and environmental needs without compromising the ability to meet those needs in the future, requires water managers to look beyond jurisdictional boundaries and their immediate supply operations, protect shared water and marine environments, resources and ecosystems from pollution and over-abstraction and deliver structural changes and resilient solutions to make the provision of water services sustainable. With a plethora of system tools increasingly available to support the sustainability transformation of water systems, sorting through their breadth and diversity to determine what is useful and what is not can be challenging. From a selection of 40 popular system tools grouped in terms of how they function, we review those most commonly used in water management through 35 water-related studies from the literature. Findings demonstrate that system tools are not a substitute for systems thinking and applying them alone does not qualify the development of systemic solutions. Systems thinking offers a powerful approach to first improving collective understanding of sustainability challenges related to water and then, in collaboration with a diverse group of stakeholders and the public, defining desired goals for water management and working together to make them a reality. System tools in that context can play an important role in facilitating the process and here we propose an overarching framework of how to select and apply available tools to facilitate a holistic, integrated, and interdisciplinary systems approach for water management and wider urban sustainability transitions.

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Applying Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) with stakeholders to explore and codesign options for water resource interventions

Cited by 8 publications

References 40 publications

Participatory integrated assessment of water resource projects in Thailand

Participatory integrated assessment of water resource projects in Thailand

Ex Ante Impact Assessment of Reservoir Construction Projects for Different Stakeholders Using Agent-Based Modeling

System Thinking for Sustainable Water Management: The Use of System Tools in Sustainability Transitions

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