Approach to Improving the Effectiveness of Managing the Economic Development of the Regions of Russia on the Example of the Chelyabinsk Region

Dranko, Oleg; Prikazchikov, S.A.

doi:10.14529/ctcr200209

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…Более общая задача ускоренного развития регионов освещалась в работах [11][12][13][14]. Механизмы удвоения ВВП (и ВРП соответственно) рассматривались в [13].…”

Section: рис 4 зависимость инвестированного капитала от выручки Fig 4...unclassified

Regional development management with two-level “industry – organization” support model

Dranko¹,

Okladnikov²,

Blagodarnyy³

2022

CTAC&R

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The growth of the country’s economy, which is commonly indicated by the increase of GDP, is a primary goal of the Russian Federation. To achieve said goal, it is required to identify control factors contributing to the growth and model relationship between them. The approach of analysis by separate levels of management (in fact, the “black box” approach) should be replaced by the decomposition of the system into its elements by levels: country (indicator – gross domestic product), region (indicator – gross regional product), enterprise (indicator – revenue, value added). Purpose of the study. The analysis of the economy of the Russian Federation as an aggregate of its regions, industries and organizations; growth opportunities examples review; introduction of selected cases that facilitate managerial decision-making. Identification of dependencies between the dynamics of indicators of the country and regions and indicators of enterprises. Analysis of growth opportunities for the economy of the model region and assessment of resource needs to ensure growth. Materials and methods. Mathematical modelling and statistical methods for the analysis of economic indicators. Formulation of optimization problems. Regression models for determining dependencies between economic indicators. Application of Big Data processing methods. Results. The problem of gross regional product growth was formulated. The mathematical model of the relation of gross regional product, industry revenue and selected organization's revenues was developed. The example of the model region is considered on the example of the Chelyabinsk region and the model industry on the example of manufacture. Statistically significant dependence of revenue and Value Added was confirmed by the example of model industry and model region. The regression model for sector contribution to gross regional product was developed and its parameters determined. A rough estimation of the required investments for growth is provided. Conclusion. A comprehensive model linking GDP, gross regional product, industry revenue and aggregate companies’ revenue in an industry was developed. Conducted analysis of the economy as an aggregate of its elements indicates the importance of industry companies as a fundamental growth-generating unit.

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Section: рис 4 зависимость инвестированного капитала от выручки Fig 4...unclassified

Regional development management with two-level “industry – organization” support model

Dranko¹,

Okladnikov²,

Blagodarnyy³

2022

CTAC&R

Self Cite

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“…Отметим, что данная задача является частным случаем более общей задачи ускоренного развития регионов, которая рассматривается в работах [4][5][6][7][8][9]. Она также тесно примыкает к задаче оптимизации развития предприятия, описанной в [10][11][12], поскольку в данном случае внимание сфокусировано на взаимосвязи показателей бюджета региона и результатов финансовой деятельности отдельных предприятий этого региона.…”

Section: общая постановка задачиunclassified

“…В Челябинской области в 2018 г. насчитывалось 2928 предприятий с выручкой более 100 млн руб. 5 . Суммарная выручка этих предприятий в 2018 г. составила 3094 млрд руб.…”

Section: исходные данныеunclassified

“…URL: https://zs74.ru/sites/default/files/n/page/28529/upload/itogi-2018.pdf, с.7. Дата обращения: 15.12.2020 5. Организации по виду деятельности «Раздел K. Деятельность финансовая и страховая» не были включены в анализ из-за изменения учетной политики по выручке в 2018 г.…”

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Modeling of Impact of the Crisis on Regional Budget Revenues: Analysis of Chelyabinsk Region

Dranko¹,

Loginovskiy²,

Prikazchikov³

2021

CTAC&R

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The economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic leads to a significant drop in incomes and tax payments. We consider express modeling of regional budget revenues depending on the depth of the crisis. The assessment is made for one of the Russian regions – the Chelyabinsk region. Purpose of the study. To build a mechanism based on available statistics for express estimation of the regional budget revenues. The comprehensive model for forecasting the region's enterprises' financial results, followed by a forecast of the regional budget revenues, was worked out. Materials and methods. Simulation models of macroeconomic indicators of the region's budget revenues are used in conjunction with enterprises' financial forecasting models. Big Data Analytics was applied to process financial statement data of the regional enterprises. Results. The model links the change in enterprises' financial results with the regional budget revenue dynamics. Based on scenario assumptions, the calculation of the change in financial results and tax bases of regional enterprises was made and the estimation of their contribution to the regional budget. The model allowed to form a forecast of revenues of the budget in the COVID-19 pandemic conditions. Conclusion. This approach combines meso- and microeconomics approaches and simulates the region's economic deve¬lopment as a multilevel system. The proposed model is universal and can be applied to consider the development of any Russian region.

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Forecasting Indicators of Region Economic Development using Financial Modeling

Dvoryashina,

Dranko

2023

2023 16th International Conference Management of Large-Scale System Development (MLSD)

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Approach to Improving the Effectiveness of Managing the Economic Development of the Regions of Russia on the Example of the Chelyabinsk Region

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

Regional development management with two-level “industry – organization” support model

Regional development management with two-level “industry – organization” support model

Modeling of Impact of the Crisis on Regional Budget Revenues: Analysis of Chelyabinsk Region

Forecasting Indicators of Region Economic Development using Financial Modeling

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