Approaches to adapting to impacts of climate change in northern Iran: The application of a Hydrogy-Economics model

Kalbali, Elham; Ziaee, Saman; Najafabadi, Mostafa Mardani; Zakerinia, M

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124067

Cited by 19 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Similar results have been reported by Shirzadi et al (2020), Shirzadi Laskookalayeh et al (2022), and Kalbali et al (2021 for different basins. However, the share of the water used by the agricultural sector does not significantly differ between the status quo and the optimal conditions, and this sector is accountable for over 85% of the water use at the basin level in both conditions.…”

Section: Impacts Of Climate Change and Water Resources Conservation P...supporting

confidence: 92%

“…The competition on access to available water among the sectors and provinces and the arising conflicts are substantially growing in arid and semi-arid parts of the world. Since irrigation development is the key to the growth of the agricultural sector and the livelihood of rural people, there is an inconsistency between the conservation of water resources and the farmers' interests (Varela-Ortega et al, 2011;Kalbali et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of water conservation policies on the reallocation of agricultural water-land resources

Kavand

Ziaee

Najafabadi³

2023

Front. Water

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The effects of policies on farmers' profit have a key role in their adoption by the farmers and their operationalization at the basin level. The present research explored the effects of water resources conservation policies on optimal cropping pattern and farmers' profit in the Zayanderud basin located Iran using a combined hydrological-economic model composed of WEAP and multi-objective (MOP) models for the assessment of the effects of the A2 climate change scenario with or without the conservation policies. The results showed that climate change will reduce crop yields by 0.5–4%, will decrease water availability by 12–19%, and will increase crop water requirements by 0–4%. It was also found that the adoption of the policy of changing irrigation technology along with the policy of limiting groundwater use will alleviate the effects of climate change on the farmers' profit, will enhance their planned return per unit area by 5%, and will increase the economic efficiency of water use from 5,283 to 6,002 IRR/m3. But, the policy of increasing water price cannot improve the farmers' profit at the basin level and the economic efficiency of water use although it can reduce water use. So, proving the improvement of profit and livelihood of the farmers by applying combined water resources conservation policies can play a significant role in motivating farmers to accept these policies, operationalizing optimal water resources management, and resolving conflicts over water use in this basin.

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Section: Impacts Of Climate Change and Water Resources Conservation P...supporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of water conservation policies on the reallocation of agricultural water-land resources

Kavand

Ziaee

Najafabadi³

2023

Front. Water

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“…By selecting the VFB and enhancing the share of rainfed production and import of farm products with a high water footprint, the expansion of conserved water resources can be increased, and the water balance of food production (presented in Table 3) can be positive. According to previous research [64][65][66][67][68], it is worth noting that different parts of Iran will face a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature during the future time horizons. Thus, shifting to the VFB can also be a practical step towards adapting to climate change.…”

Section: Selection Of the Most Desirable Food Basket Using The Topsis...mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework for Assessing Food Baskets Based on Water and Carbon Footprints

Mohammadi,

Javadi,

Yousefi

et al. 2024

Water

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The composition of food baskets can significantly influence the water consumption rate and society’s environmental impact. This study evaluates the sustainability of Iran’s food and nutrition security by evaluating five food baskets using water and carbon-footprint indices. These food baskets are the common Iranian food basket (CIFB), the vegetarian food basket (VFB), the Ministry of Health desired food basket (MHDFB), the Swiss Society for Nutrition food basket (SSNFB), and the Mediterranean food basket (MFB). This study also examines the role of Iran’s agricultural sector under the Paris Climate Change Agreement (COP21). The TOPSIS multi-criteria decision-making method was used to identify the most desirable food basket. The results of this study show that the VFB could be the most desirable alternative to the CIFB. Replacing the CIFB with the VFB causes a 10% and 21% lower water and carbon footprint, respectively. From a 30-year perspective (around 2050), choosing the VFB would reduce the blue water footprint by 19.7 BCM and the gray water footprint by 3.6 BCM compared to the CIFB. According to the provisions of COP21 regarding Iran’s voluntary program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the agricultural sector will be one of the sources of greenhouse gas emissions that will face an upward trend. Hence, to adhere to this voluntary commitment, these emissions should be reduced by changing the CIFB to the VFB or reducing emissions in other sectors, such as industry. Choosing the VFB can reduce 10.7 million tons of CO2 emissions, which can be a significant step for the agricultural sector in Iran in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, considering the characteristics of farm products (water and carbon footprints) in Iran, a country located in a semi-arid climate, the VFB is recommended.

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“…Being located in West Asia, Iran is one of the arid and semi-arid regions of the world, which has the necessary climatic conditions for the occurrence of wildfires in its forests and pastures (Kalbali et al, 2021;Shokouhi et al, 2023;Alinai et al, 2021). In the forests of Golestan, compared to other regions of the country, there are more intensity, size, power, and extent, in such a way that more than 1250 cases of wildfire in an area of more than 10000 hectares in the last 20 years (1990 to 2010) occurred in this province, which has the highest percentage compared to other parts of the country (Mirdeilami et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal monitoring of wildfires in Golestan province using remote sensing data

Asadi Oskouei,

Shobairi,

Sadeghi

et al. 2024

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Wildfires are one of the most significant factors of ecosystem change. Knowing the wildfire regime (frequency, intensity, and distribution pattern) is essential in wildfire management. This research aims to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of wildfires in Golestan in 2001-2021 using MODIS data, burned area product (MCD64A1). For this purpose, the annual and monthly frequency, as well as the trend of wildfires based on types of forest, pasture, and crop cover, were statistically analyzed. The local Moran pattern analysis method and kernel density function were used to analyze the spatial dynamics of wildfire. The results showed that 18,462 wildfires occurred in Golestan, the highest of which was in 2010, with 2,517 wildfires (13.8%). The lowest number of wildfires, with only 57 events (0.5%), was in 2001. Based on the local Moran model results and the kernel density function, the wildfires' extent and intensity were greater in the plains and foothills to the south and southeast of Golestan. The lowest extent and intensity of the wildfire corresponded to the eastern parts of the province. The frequency of wildfires was higher in the hot period of the year (spring and summer). However, the period of occurrence of wildfire and the peak of wildfire changes in different uses. The wildfire zones in June were wider and more intense than in other months. The frequency and spatial extent of wildfires in agricultural lands from May to July, pasture lands in July, August, and September, and forest lands in November and December were more than in other months. Weather conditions play a significant role in the occurrence of wildfire in the forest lands of Golestan. The results of this research help understand wildfire risk areas and provide a scientific basis for predicting and controlling wildfires and reducing carbon emissions related to them.

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Approaches to adapting to impacts of climate change in northern Iran: The application of a Hydrogy-Economics model

Cited by 19 publications

References 28 publications

The impact of water conservation policies on the reallocation of agricultural water-land resources

The impact of water conservation policies on the reallocation of agricultural water-land resources

A Framework for Assessing Food Baskets Based on Water and Carbon Footprints

Spatial and temporal monitoring of wildfires in Golestan province using remote sensing data

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