Approaches to Assessing the Vulnerability of Large City Population to Natural and Man-Made Hazards Using Mobile Operators Data (Case Study of Moscow, Russia)

Badina, Svetlana; Babkin, R. A.; Mikhaylov, Andrey S.

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-88063-7_11

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 26 publications

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“…), the emergence of floods due to the potential destruction of waterlimiting devices on Moskva river and adjacent water reservoirs. Particular attention should be paid to the dangers associated with potentially hazardous industrial facilities (explosive, chemical, radiation and fire hazardous), institutions working with pathogens of high pathogenicity (Badina et al 2022b).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment Of Temporal Variability In The Level Of Population Vulnerability To Natural And Man-Made Hazards (The Case Of Moscow Districts)

Babkin

Badina

Bereznyatsky

2023

GES

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The relevance of the study lies in the need for a scientific search for the possibilities of using new types of Big data in studies of the population vulnerability to solve practical problems of improving the safety of urban spaces from natural and man-made hazards. The object of the study is the administrative districts of Moscow; the subject is the temporal patterns of vulnerability of their population to potential natural and man-made hazards. The research question of the study is to develop a typology of Moscow districts and further assess this sustainability in terms of the population vulnerability to natural and man-made hazards. To achieve this research question, a set of tasks was solved: 1. Processing of the mobile operators’ data array and further construction of a continuous graph of the Moscow population dynamics in 2019 (with a time cycle of 30 minutes, over 36 million measurements in more than 7 thousand time slices); 2. Empirical justification of natural temporal boundaries of daily, weekly, seasonal cycles of population dynamics in Moscow districts; 3. Justification of key factors and parameters of urban population vulnerability; 4. Development and approbation of the dynamic clustering method of Moscow districts using selected variables and periods. The study is based on the impersonal mobile operators’ data on the locations of subscribers for 2019, provided by the Department of Information Technologies of the Moscow city. The method of dynamic cluster analysis is used. Four particular clusterings were obtained that characterize the “behavior” of the settlement system in the main intervals of social time (weekdays and weekends of the cold and warm seasons). Сluster stability matrix allows to identify which of the districts retain their properties during the period under review, and which are characterized by instability of considered indicators of population vulnerability. Depending on the stability of the position of the districts in a particular cluster, “stable”, “conditionally stable” and “nomadic” types of districts were identified. The study showed that the first two types include spatial-settlement structures that are stable in time with approximately the same level of population vulnerability during the year, while the third type requires a special differentiated approach to the development of measures to protect the population from natural and man-made emergencies. Calculations have shown that “nomadic” type of districts concentrate on average from 2.2 million people in the summer season to 3 million people in the winter season, that is, a very significant share of the entire population of the capital.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment Of Temporal Variability In The Level Of Population Vulnerability To Natural And Man-Made Hazards (The Case Of Moscow Districts)

Babkin

Badina

Bereznyatsky

2023

GES

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Intraday Dynamics of the Urban Population in Studies of Natural and Man-Made Risks (Case Study of Moscow, Russia)

Babkin

Badina

Mikhaylov

2023

Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems

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Investigating the effective consequences on the assets of an urban system in facing scenario-based hazards

Givehchi,

Vejdani Nozar,

Malekmohammadi

2024

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Urban assets are generated through physical elements in a city as part of critical infrastructure. To ensure a sustainable urban future, innovative businesses and people are also essential urban assets. In the possible occurrence of natural and manborne hazards, architecture, population density, gathering locations, and connected infrastructure systems in cities are efficient. Manmade hazards are accidents caused by people that happen in or close to human settlements. These are things that have a major impact on the quality of life, health status, and even mortality. The consequences of such hazards in the town will have to be analyzed. To this end, causal relationships between a town's assets against man-made and natural hazards have been analyzed using the Fuzzy DEMATEL method. According to the results of this research, physical elements have a more important effect on other assets in cities at risk from man-made hazards than any other factor. In the face of man's hazards, economic activity can be more closely linked to population and physical elements. Physical elements have a higher impact on the population and economic activities when confronted with environmental hazards. Physical elements interact more with population and economic activities. In line with the results, more important than physical elements are population and economic activities. Lastly, it is suggested that the risks of dangerous accidents should be assessed and their consequences determined by taking into account the worst-case scenario.

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Approaches to Assessing the Vulnerability of Large City Population to Natural and Man-Made Hazards Using Mobile Operators Data (Case Study of Moscow, Russia)

Cited by 3 publications

References 26 publications

Assessment Of Temporal Variability In The Level Of Population Vulnerability To Natural And Man-Made Hazards (The Case Of Moscow Districts)

Assessment Of Temporal Variability In The Level Of Population Vulnerability To Natural And Man-Made Hazards (The Case Of Moscow Districts)

Intraday Dynamics of the Urban Population in Studies of Natural and Man-Made Risks (Case Study of Moscow, Russia)

Investigating the effective consequences on the assets of an urban system in facing scenario-based hazards

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