Archetypes of social-ecological-technological systems for managing ecological infrastructure

Wicki, Sergio; Black, Benjamin; Kurmann, Manuel; Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad1080

Cited by 8 publications

References 63 publications

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Broadening the horizon in land use change modelling: Normative scenarios for nature positive futures in Switzerland

Black,

Adde,

Farinotti

et al. 2024

Reg Environ Change

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Within scenario-based research of social-ecological systems, there has been a growing recognition of the importance of normative scenarios that define positive outcomes for both nature and society. While several frameworks exist to guide the co-creation of normative scenario narratives, examples of operationalizing these narratives in quantitative simulation modelling are still limited. To address this gap, this paper presents an example of how aspects of normative scenarios can be realized within a spatial model of land use and land cover change. This is achieved through a combination of data-driven approaches to encapsulate scenario-specific differences in local and global scale phenomena, as well as iterative expert elicitation to quantify descriptive trends from narratives. This approach is demonstrated with a case study simulating five scenarios of landscape change (three normative and two exploratory) in Switzerland between 2020 and 2060. The resulting maps of future land use and land cover exhibited distinct variations between the scenarios, notably with regard to the prevalence of areas of heterogeneous semi-natural land, such as alpine pastures and grassland, often considered culturally emblematic of Switzerland. While the simulation results were generally consistent with the outcomes expressed in the scenario narratives, following a process of expert feedback, we reflect that there are clear challenges in leveraging such results to elicit further discussions as to the desirability and plausibility of future scenarios. Specifically, the need to summarize spatial simulations in a manner that is easily interpretable and encourages consideration of the broader patterns of change rather than focusing on fine-scale details.

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Broadening the horizon in land use change modelling: Normative scenarios for nature positive futures in Switzerland

Black,

Adde,

Farinotti

et al. 2024

Reg Environ Change

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Sensitivities in associating land-system archetypes with sustainability metrics: Insights from simulations

Varma,

Evans,

Bütikofer

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Archetypes of land- and socio-ecological systems, generated using unsupervised classification methods, enable the assimilation of complex environmental and socio-economic information. Such simplification has considerable potential to feed into decision support systems for sustainability planning. But, the usefulness of archetypes depends on how well they relate to sustainability criteria, such as ecosystem service (ES) delivery, that are external to the input datasets employed for archetype generation. Sensitivities in such post-hoc association analyses, and the associated utility of the archetype framework in a decision support context, remain unexplored. Here we emulated post-hoc association analysis procedures using simulated socio-ecological datasets and ES response variables. Our simulations revealed a substantial influence on analysis performance from (1) the number of variables used as inputs in archetype generation, (2) the correlation structure of input datasets, (3) the type and distribution of input variables, and (4) the functional form (linear or non-linear) characterising the relationship between ES variables and their predictors. We observed near-identical performance when archetypes were generated using K-means clustering and Self-Organising Maps (SOMs) – two commonly used archetype classification methods. Further, better archetype classifier performance did not guarantee better discrimination of ES value distributions between archetypes. Our results suggest that designing a framework to generate archetypes for sustainability planning, and the selected methodological choices therein, should place greater emphasis on what the archetypes will be used for in downstream analyses, and not focus solely on archetype classifier performance. This would better ensure the identification of archetypes adaptable to a diverse array of sustainability indicators and sufficiently robust for monitoring decision outcomes over time.

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Evaluation of Age-Friendly Retrofits for Urban Communities in China Using a Social–Ecological–Technological Systems Framework

Zeng,

Zhu,

Lin

et al. 2024

Buildings

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To address the problem of accurately evaluating age-friendly retrofit indicators in urban communities, this study constructs an evaluation model that takes into account user preferences and their interaction needs based on the social–ecological–technological systems (SETS) theory. The model aims to establish a set of precise community retrofit indicators, covering aspects such as public participation level, public ancillary facilities, green space layout, living environment building, health service support, and accessible design. By employing prioritization strategies, the model seeks to maximize resident satisfaction and promote harmonious coexistence between the community and the environment. Firstly, the retrofit evaluation indicators are formulated using the SETS theory. The entropy weight method (EWM) is then applied to determine the initial weights of these evaluation indicators, followed by the use of the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method to analyze the interrelationships among the indicators. The Kano model is integrated to adjust the weights, reflecting their importance. The final weights of the indicators are determined through normalization. Based on this, the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method is employed to rank and analyze the importance of age-friendly retrofits in the community. Finally, six communities in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China, are selected as samples to evaluate and analyze the age-friendly retrofit indicators. Different methods are compared, and their advantages and disadvantages are ranked to validate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed approach. Based on the analysis results, specific design schemes for improving the identified shortcomings in age-friendly aspects of these communities are proposed, considering the needs of aging populations and taking into account community public facilities, accessible design renovations, and the enhancement of green space layouts. This study aims to explore the comprehensive benefits of an age-friendly retrofit in urban communities and provide reference for the deep integration of social, ecological, and technological benefits in urban renewal. The evaluation indicators, methods, and conclusions presented can serve as a decision-making basis for the renovation and renewal of aging urban communities, particularly in terms of age-friendly updates.

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Archetypes of social-ecological-technological systems for managing ecological infrastructure

Cited by 8 publications

References 63 publications

Broadening the horizon in land use change modelling: Normative scenarios for nature positive futures in Switzerland

Broadening the horizon in land use change modelling: Normative scenarios for nature positive futures in Switzerland

Sensitivities in associating land-system archetypes with sustainability metrics: Insights from simulations

Evaluation of Age-Friendly Retrofits for Urban Communities in China Using a Social–Ecological–Technological Systems Framework

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