Are Current or Future Mesothelioma Epidemics in Hong Kong the Tragic Legacy of Uncontrolled Use of Asbestos in the Past?

Abstract

BackgroundBecause of the long latent period of asbestos-related mesothelioma, investigators suggest that the high incidence of this disease will continue in the coming decades.ObjectivesWe describe the time trends of mesothelioma incidence and its relationship to historical consumption of asbestos in Hong Kong and project future trends of mesothelioma incidence.MethodsWe obtained local annual consumption of total asbestos for 1960–2006 (converted to kilograms per person per year). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of mesothelioma were computed and depicted on graphs using the centered moving average method. Indirectly standardized rates were regressed on a transformation of consumption data that assumed that the latency between asbestos exposure and mesothelioma diagnosis followed a normal distribution with a mean ± SD of 42 ± 10.5 years.ResultsASIRs for males started to increase substantially in 1994 and were highest in 2004; for females, ASIRs climbed in the 1980s and in the early 1990s but have fluctuated without obvious trends in recent years. The highest asbestos consumption level in Hong Kong was in 1960–1963 and then decreased sharply afterward. Using past asbestos consumption patterns, we predict that the mesothelioma incidence rate for males will peak in 2009, with the number of cases peaking in 2014, and then slowly decline in the coming decades.ConclusionsHong Kong experienced an epidemic of mesothelioma from 2000 to 2006 that corresponded with the peak of local asbestos consumption in the early 1960s assuming an average latent period of 42 years. The incidence is anticipated to decline in the coming decades but may not decrease back to the background risk level (the risk unrelated to asbestos exposure).

Butein impairs the protumorigenic activity of malignant pleural mesothelioma cells

“…34,37,55,56 Furthermore, the widespread use of asbestos (and asbestos-like material) in the 70s allows epidemiologists to expect a peak of the disease within the next 15 years. 57,58 Therefore, there is a great need for novel therapeutic approaches for MPM. The known involvement of NFκB 37 and the potential involvement of STAT3 activation 38,39 in the pathogenesis of MPM has led us to verify whether inhibition of these important mediators of the inflammation-driven neoplastic progression may affect MPM cells.…”

Global mesothelioma deaths reported to the World Health Organization between 1994 and 2008

“…6 Reports of an increase in the incidence of mesothelioma have been published in a wide range of countries. [7][8][9][10][11] However, to date there is no established global baseline that can be used to evaluate trends in disease occurrence.…”

Malignant Mesothelioma in Eastern Asia

“…The estimated annual incidence rate was one per million. Tse et al (2010) reviewed the cases of malignant mesothelioma registered at the Hong Kong Cancer Registry. During the period 1976-2006, a total of 199 mesothelioma cases had been diagnosed (137 in males, and 62 in females).…”

“…Among males, the incidence rate peaked in 2004 with 3.86 per million. Tse et al (2010). estimated that the average of asbestos consumption was high in Hong Kong in the 1960s and in the 1970s (6.14 kg/capita/year).…”