Are Governmental Policies an Effective Way to Reduce Agricultural Carbon Emissions? An Empirical Study of Shandong in Main Grain Producing Areas of China

Abstract

In the context of global and national carbon reduction targets, agricultural carbon emissions have become a critical focus. As global food demand increases, numerous agricultural policies have been implemented. Faced with limited policy resources, evaluating the impact of these policies on agricultural carbon emissions and production is essential. This study examined the relationship between food production and agricultural carbon emissions during the stage of agricultural development in Shandong Province, one of China’s major grain-producing regions, using the decoupling model. Additionally, the coupled coordination model was employed to assess the specific influence of agricultural policy clusters on this transformation. The results indicate that Shandong is transitioning from high-input, extensive farming to green, low-carbon, modern agriculture, with most cities shifting from strong negative decoupling to strong decoupling. Over time, the role of agricultural policies in driving this shift has grown more significant. Future policymaking should prioritize the overall quality of agricultural producers and maintain a continuous focus on sustainable, green development. Ensuring that policy directions align with evolving stages of agricultural development and adjusting them in real-time will be crucial.