Are wildcat well outcomes dependent or independent?

Kaufman, Gordon M.; Lee, P. J.

doi:10.1007/bf01782274

Cited by 13 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Compared with pure statistical models (Kaufman & Lee, 1992;Pan, 1997), this object-based model is better constrained by our general understanding of the petroleum geology. The simulated spatial pattern of petroleum occurrences is, in general, consistent with the geological favorability map.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An object-based model for predicting the locations of undiscovered oil and gas resources, western Sverdrup Basin, Canada

Chen

Osadetz

Gao

et al. 2004

Marine and Petroleum Geology

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An object-based model for predicting the locations of undiscovered oil and gas resources, western Sverdrup Basin, Canada

Chen

Osadetz

Gao

et al. 2004

Marine and Petroleum Geology

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“…They demonstrate the use of graphical diagnostics to improve model specification. Kaufman and Lee (1992) employ logit regression to examine the influence of the spatial pattern of drilling history on probabilities of future exploratory well successes. Their objective is to estimate the probability of success of the n+1st wildcat at a particular location given locations and outcomes (success or failure) of the preceding n wildcats.…”

Section: Spatial Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical Issues in the Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources

Kaufman¹

1993

The Energy Journal

Self Cite

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-For Dave WoodPrior to his untimely death, my friend Dave Wood gave me wise counsel about how best to organize a paper describing uses of statistics in oil and gas exploration. A preliminary reconnaissance of the literature alerted me to the enormous range of topics that might be covered. Geology, geophysics with particular attention to seismology, geochemistry, petroleum engineering and petroleum economics--each of these disciplines plays an important role in petroleum exploration and each weaves statistical thinking into its fabric in a distinctive way. An exhaustive review would be book length. Dave and I agreed that a timely review paper of reasonable length would:(1) Illustrate the range of statistical thinking of oil and gas exploratists.(2) Concentrate on topics with statistical novelty, show how statistical thinking can lead to better decision making and let the reader know about important controversies that might be resolved by better use of statistical methods.(3) Focus on topics that are directly relevant to exploration decision making and resource estimation.In response to Dave's sensible suggestions, the Department of Interior's 1989 assessment of U.S. undiscovered oil and gas will be a tour map for a short trip through a large territory of statistical methods and applications. Were he here to review this review, I know that it would be better than it is.

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“…The second, stochastic group of approaches uses point process models (Kaufman and Lee, 1992), geostatistical methods (Pan, 1997) and multivariate classification methods (Harff et al, 1992). These methods rely primarily on the outcomes of exploration drilling (see examples from Kaufman and Lee, 1992;Pan, 1997). The results of stochastic methods are displayed either as a hydrocarbon occurrence probability map, or as an exploration uncertainty map.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The statistical bias of the discovered pool size sample compared to its natural population is a well-known phenomenon (e.g. Kaufman et al, 1975;Lee and Wang,1985). The spatial bias of such a sample is indicated by selective exploration drilling based on factors that include geological favorability and accessibility.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The resulting play summary map is a geological favorability map that represents an integration of genetic geological information useful for exploration decision-making. The second, stochastic group of approaches uses point process models (Kaufman and Lee, 1992), geostatistical methods (Pan, 1997) and multivariate classification methods (Harff et al, 1992). These methods rely primarily on the outcomes of exploration drilling (see examples from Kaufman and Lee, 1992;Pan, 1997).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characterizing the spatial distribution of an undiscovered hydrocarbon resource: the Keg River Reef play, Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

Chen

Osadetz

Gao

et al. 2000

Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology

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Specific maps constructed using integrated exploration history data, geological play characteristics and seismic prospecting activity are useful for both petroleum exploration and resource management. Geoscience data can be combined with exploration results to predict the possible locations and sizes of undiscovered pools in the Middle Devonian Keg River Reef play. The combination of all available information gives a better estimate of petroleum occurrence than any individual data set. A prior probability of hydrocarbon occurrence, estimated using exploration results, can be updated using key geological elements that reflect factors controlling pools locations and sizes. The analysis of geophysical survey information and the consideration of exhaustion of undiscovered potential by successful and unsuccessful exploration wells provides a realistic volumetric parameter that illustrates the space available for undiscovered pools. The construction of a favorability map, using a combination of the posterior probability map of hydrocarbon occurrence and the volumetric variable, produces a risk-weighted reservoir space that outlines the possible locations and sizes of undiscovered petroleum resources in a play. The favorability map, itself a useful tool for both hydrocarbon exploration and petroleum resource management, provides a meaningful method for describing the spatial distribution of undiscovered pools and fields predicted using other stochastic resource assessment methods. R~SUM~Des cartes sp6cifiques construites en utilisant des donn4es int4gr4es d'histoire d'exp[0ration, les caract4ristiques de cibles d'exploration g6ologique et l'activit4 de prospection sismique sont utiles pour l'exploration p6trolihre et la gestion de la ressource. Les donn6es g6oscientifiques peuvent 4tre combin4es avec les r6sultats d'exploration pour prOdire les localisations possibles et les sites de gisements non-d4couverts dans la cible d'exploration rdcifale de Keg River. La combinaison de toute l'information disponible donne une meilleure 6valuation de l'occurrence du p4trole que tout jeux de donn4es pris individuellement. La probabilitd prdalable de l'occurrence d'hydrocarbures, estim6e en utilisant les r6sultats d'exploration, peut Otre mis ~ jour en utilisant des facteurs g6ologique cl4s qui reflhtent les facteurs contr01ant la localisation et la dimension des gisements. Les analyses de l'information des lev4s g4ophysiques et la consid4ration de l'6puisement du potentiel non-d6couvert par des puits d'exploration couronn6s de succhs ou non, fournissent un paramhtre volum6trique r4aliste qui illustre l'espace disponible pour les gisements non-d6couverts. La construction de cartes de zone favorables en utilisant une combinaison de cartes de probabilit4 post4rieure d'occurrence d'hydrocarbures avec la variable volum4trique produisent un espace de r4servoir pond6r4 par le risque, qui dresse l'4bauche des localisations possibles et des dimensions des ressources en p6trole non-d6couvertes dans une cible d'exploration. La carte de favora...

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Are wildcat well outcomes dependent or independent?

Cited by 13 publications

References 6 publications

An object-based model for predicting the locations of undiscovered oil and gas resources, western Sverdrup Basin, Canada

An object-based model for predicting the locations of undiscovered oil and gas resources, western Sverdrup Basin, Canada

Statistical Issues in the Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources

Characterizing the spatial distribution of an undiscovered hydrocarbon resource: the Keg River Reef play, Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

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