Assessing climate change vulnerability in Canadian marine conservation networks: implications for conservation planning and resilience

Abstract

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are critical in safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystem functions under climate change. The long-term effectiveness of these static conservation measures will depend on how well they represent current and future ocean changes. Here, we use the Climate Risk Index for Biodiversity to assess the vulnerability representation of marine ecosystems within the Canadian marine conservation network (CMCN) under two divergent emissions scenarios. We found that MPAs best represent climate vulnerability in Atlantic Canada (85% representativity overall, and 93% in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence under low emissions), followed by the Pacific (78%) and Arctic (63%; lowest in the Eastern Arctic (41% under high emissions) regions). Notably, MPAs with lower climate vulnerability are proportionally overrepresented in the CMCN. Broad-scale geographic targets employed in the Scotian Shelf-Bay of Fundy network planning process achieve over 90% representativity of climate vulnerabilities, underscoring the importance of ensuring habitat representativity and geographic distribution in conservation planning to enhance climate resilience, even if not explicitly prioritized. Moving towards Canada’s target to protect 30% of its waters by 2030, prioritizing representativity and designation of MPAs in currently underrepresented climate-vulnerable regions may be crucial to enhancing the resilience of the CMCN amidst an ever-changing climate.