Assessing Hydrological Vulnerability to Future Droughts in a Mediterranean Watershed: Combined Indices-Based and Distributed Modeling Approaches

Abstract

Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of future droughts is essential for effective water resource management, especially in the Mediterranean region where water resources are expected to be scarcer in the future. In this study, we combined meteorological and hydrological drought indices with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict future dry years during two periods (2035–2050and 2085–2100) in a typical Mediterranean watershed in Northern Morocco, namely, Bouregreg watershed. The developed methodology was then used to evaluate drought impact on annual water yields and to identify the most vulnerable sub-basins within the study watershed. Two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of a downscaled global circulation model were used to force the calibrated SWAT model. Results indicated that Bouregreg watershed will experience several dry years with higher frequency especially at the end of current century. Significant decreases of annual water yields were simulated during dry years, ranging from −45.6% to −76.7% under RCP4.5, and from −66.7% to −95.6% under RCP8.5, compared to baseline. Overall, hydrologic systems in sub-basins under the ocean or high-altitude influence appear to be more resilient to drought. The combination of drought indices and the semi-distributed model offer a comprehensive tool to understand potential future droughts in Bouregreg watershed.

Assessment of the relative impacts of climate changes and anthropogenic forcing on Ouergha watershed hydrology (North-East of Morocco)

“…Due to most likely increase in average temperature in both scenarios, it is necessary to plan on optimising water usage for the irrigation area of the region. These results are in agreement with previous study conducted by [26], the analysis expected a strong increase of mean temperatures of about +1.3°C and +1.44°C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively.…”

Modeling the supply, demand, and stress of water resources using ecosystem services concept in Sirvan River Basin (Kurdistan-Iran)

“…Some of the existing methods and models allow users to know the current situation spatially or geographically. These models include SWAT (Akoko et al 2020;Brouziyne et al 2020;Petpongpan et al 2020;Li et al 2021;Wang & Cao .2021), WEAP (Li et al 2015;Gao et al 2017), and InVEST model (Yang et al 2020;Yin et al 2020), all having both capabilities and limitations. The accuracy of the inputs of each model is a critical feature.…”

Calibração e validação de modelos hidrológicos para uma bacia hidrográfica do estado de Goiás

“…Pensando na gestão sustentável da água e na preservação do patrimônio ecológico, as previsões de resposta dos regimes de vazão à variabilidade climática contribuem para o entendimento da distribuição espaço-temporal de futuras secas e conhecimento dos riscos de enchentes em áreas urbanas (Brouziyne et al, 2020(Brouziyne et al, , 2021.…”