Assessing influence in biofuel production and ecosystem services when environmental changes affect plant–pest relationships

Simone, Walter De; Iannella, Mattia; D’Alessandro, Paola; Biondi, Maurizio

doi:10.1111/gcbb.12727

Cited by 21 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Climate change is also a driving factor that affects ecosystem services. Studies have shown that among the impacts of precipitation, management policies, terrain, and soil erodibility on soil conservation and water production, the impact of precipitation was greater [6,23]. The management policies related to human activities had relatively little impact on those services, and terrain had a greater impact on soil conservation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As the link and bridge between ecosystems and social systems [2,3], ecosystem services are closely related to human wellbeing [4,5]. However, with the intensification of global climate change and increasing human activities, regional ecosystem service functions have undergone significant changes, affecting the sustainable development of regional ecology, economy, and society [6,7]. Especially, when human disturbance exceeds the tolerance of the ecosystem, the stability of the ecosystem structure can be destroyed, leading to ecological and environmental problems such as habitat fragmentation and ecosystem function degradation [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs and Synergies in Ulansuhai Basin

Wang

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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As an important grain production base and ecological barrier zone in China, Ulansuhai Basin provides a variety of important ecosystem services and ensures human well-being, and it is essential to maintain the sustainable development of the regional ecology–economy–society. Therefore, in order to explore the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services in Ulansuhai Basin, we first evaluated the spatio-temporal characteristics of five ecosystem services in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2018 based on the InVEST model, including soil conservation, carbon storage, water production, water purification, and food supply. We then further analyzed the trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services in Ulansuhai Basin and in different functional areas through using the Spearman correlation coefficient. The results show that different ecosystem services had obvious regional differences due to different land-use types in Ulansuhai Basin. Soil conservation, carbon storage, and water production were higher in the eastern region and lower in the central and western regions, while water purification and food supply were higher in the central region and lower in the eastern and western regions. Ecosystem services showed an overall increasing trend from 2000 to 2018. Moreover, trade-off was the dominant relationship between different ecosystem services, and trade-offs and synergies showed strengthening trends to a certain extent. The trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services in different functional areas were obviously different. Our study aimed to clarify the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services and to propose ecological protection and management countermeasures and suggestions, which can provide decision-making reference for regional ecological protection and management.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs and Synergies in Ulansuhai Basin

Wang

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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“…We performed future land-use-land-cover (LULC) simulations in sub-Saharan Africa using the InVEST suite, a geospatial modelling framework tool that evaluates the impact of land-use change on ES ( Sharp et al, 2018 ; De Simone et al, 2020 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies

Iannella¹,

Simone²,

D’Alessandro³

et al. 2021

PeerJ

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Aims Rice is a staple food for many countries, being fundamental for a large part of the worlds’ population. In sub-Saharan Africa, its importance is currently high and is likely to become even more relevant, considering that the number of people and the per-capita consumption are both predicted to increase. The flea beetles belonging to the Chaetocnema pulla species group (pulla group), a harmful rice pest, are an important vector of the Rice Yellow Mottle Virus, a disease which leads even to 80–100% yield losses in rice production. We present a continental-scale study aiming at: (1) locating current and future suitable territories for both pulla group and rice; (2) identifying areas where rice cultivations may occur without suffering the presence of pulla group using an Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) approach; (3) estimating current and future connectivity among pulla group populations and areas predicted to host rice cultivations, based on the most recent land-use estimates for future agricultural trends; (4) proposing a new connectivity index called “Pest Aggression Index” (PAI) to measure the agricultural susceptibility to the potential future invasions of pests and disease; (5) quantifying losses in terms of production when rice cultivations co‐occur with the pulla group and identifying the SSA countries which, in the future inferred scenarios, will potentially suffer the greatest losses. Location Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods Since the ongoing climate and land-use changes affect species’ distributions, we first assess the impact of these changes through a spatially-jackknifed Maxent-based Ecological Niche Modelling in GIS environment, for both the pulla group and rice, in two climatic/socioeconomic future scenarios (SSP_2.45 and 3.70). We then assess the connectivity potential of the pulla group populations towards rice cultivations, for both current and future predictions, through a circuit theory-based approach (Circuitscape implemented in Julia language). We finally measure the rice production and GPD loss per country through the spatial index named “Pest Aggression Index”, based on the inferred connectivity magnitude. Results The most considerable losses in rice production are observed for Liberia, Sierra Leone and Madagascar in all future scenarios (2030, 2050, 2070). The future economic cost, calculated as USD lost from rice losses/country’s GDP results are high for Central African Republic (−0.6% in SSP_2.45 and −3.0% in SSP_3.70) and Guinea–Bissau (−0.4% in SSP_2.45 and −0.68% in SSP_3.70), with relevant losses also obtained for other countries. Main conclusions Since our results are spatially explicit and focused on each country, we encourage careful land-use planning. Our findings could support best practices to avoid the future settlement of new cultivations in territories where rice would be attacked by pulla group and the virus, bringing economic and biodiversity losses.

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“…For both species, the percent contribution of each predictor was assessed, and the corresponding partial dependence plots were produced. The ensemble models (EMs) were then created from the single base models using the "BIOMOD_EnsembleModeling" function, selecting single models which performed with AUC > 0.80 and TSS > 0.70, thus obtaining a more "conservative" final EM (Iannella et al 2018;Cerasoli et al 2019a;De Simone et al 2020).…”

Section: Model Building and Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate is often regarded as the main abiotic factor shaping species' distributions both at broad (Root 1988;Buckley & Jetz 2007;Sexton et al 2009;Wiens 2011;De Simone et al 2020) and narrow (Iannella et al 2018;Brunetti et al 2019) spatial scales. Big climatic events, such as those that occurred during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene ages, have deeply influenced the distribution patterns of many animal and plant species, leading to large-scale range contractions, range expansions, and extinctions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revealing the role of past and current climate in shaping the distribution of two parapatric European bats, Myotis daubentonii and M. capaccinii

Gregorio

Iannella

Biondi

2021

The European Zoological Journal

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In this contribution, we aim at determining the role of climate in shaping the current and historical (Last Glacial Maximum and Middle Holocene) distributions of two parapatric bat species (Myotis daubentonii and Myotis capaccinii) in Europe, using ensemble Habitat Suitability Modelling (HSM). Model projection to current climatic conditions predicted distributions largely coherent with the ones observed for the two species in the study area. Temperature-and precipitation-linked variables well accounted for the observed parapatry of the two target species. Moreover, areas of co-occurrence turned out to be those where the main ecological needs concerning the most important range-limiting variables are met for both species. Model projections to past scenarios allowed us to hypothesize the effects of climatic oscillations over the distribution of the two species during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. Extreme range contractions during the Last Glacial Maximum and the subsequent expansions during Middle Holocene were predicted, consistently with general patterns of post-glacial recolonization routes of many temperate bat species in Europe. Our findings are largely coherent with recent phylogeographic studies investigating the two target species, thus corroborating the validity of potential distribution scenarios obtained from the models and, more importantly, confirming the great influence that glacial cycles had in shaping the biogeography of the European fauna.

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Assessing influence in biofuel production and ecosystem services when environmental changes affect plant–pest relationships

Cited by 21 publications

References 66 publications

Analysis of Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs and Synergies in Ulansuhai Basin

Analysis of Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs and Synergies in Ulansuhai Basin

Climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies

Revealing the role of past and current climate in shaping the distribution of two parapatric European bats, Myotis daubentonii and M. capaccinii

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