Assessing the dynamics of terms of trade in a model of cumulative causation and structural change

Abstract

Assessing the dynamics of terms of trade in a model of cumulative causation and structural change ABSTRACT: The motivation for this paper stems from the steady decline in the share of consumer expenditures on goods produced in the global south, coupled with the (empirically ambiguous) Singer/Prebisch hypothesis that this can be explained by a secular decline in the southern terms of trade. drawing on these sources of inspiration, the paper sets out to study the dynamics of the terms of trade using a multi-sector growth model based on the principle of cumulative causation. The upshot is a North-South model of growth and trade in which the evolution of the terms of trade depends on differential rates of productivity growth in different sectors of the economy -and in which terms of trade dynamics may not be the best guide as to whether or not there is an uneven development problem.

Influence of World Commodity Prices on the Dynamics of Income of Exporting Countries of Natural Resources Under Globalization

“…Comparing one's own study with the results of those who also used pebbles of the model to assess the influence of certain phenomena on changes in the dynamics of GDP, production, etc., we can say that there are cases (Araujo, 2016;Perez Fofero & Servan, 2016) when an assessment was made using models, not taking into account those indicators and indices that accurately describe commodity prices, the specifics of countries exporting natural resources, etc. One of the features of our study is the application of the Two-Step Least Squares method.…”

Causação cumulativa, taxa de câmbio real e progresso tecnológico endógeno em uma abordagem dinâmica de mudança estrutural multilateral: uma análise teórica e empírica

“…O trabalho tem por objetivo desenvolver um modelo multisetorial e multilateral de causação cumulativa com progresso tecnológico endógeno e taxa de câmbio real. A literatura export-led growth, baseada inicialmente no modelo Dixon and Thirlwall (1979), avançou para uma abordagem multisetorial segundo Araujo (2013). Entretanto, o modelo multisetorial originalmente desenvolvido por Araujo e Lima (2007), desconsidera a taxa de câmbio real, bem como a presença de múltiplos parceiros comerciais e mantém a taxa de variação da produtividade do trabalho nula.…”

“…The work aims to develop a multi-sectoral cumulative causation model with endogenous technological progress. The export-led growth literature, originally based in Dixon and Thirlwall (1979) model, advanced to a multi-sectoral approach by Araujo (2013). However, the multisectoral model originally developed by Araujo and Lima (2007), disregards the exchange rate and keeps the rate of change of labor productivity null.…”