Assessing the sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts of new European Union broiler chicken welfare measures in Hungary as proposed by the European Food Safety Authority

Abstract

This research, focusing on Hungary, aims to analyse the comprehensive economic impact of proposed changes in daily weight gain and stocking density for broilers, as outlined in the European Food Safety Agency's (EFSA) 2023 Scientific Opinion "Welfare of Broilers on Farm". Hungary is a significant player in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) poultry industry and was the second-largest chicken meat producer and exporter in the CEE region in 2022. Utilising the dynamic econometric model AGMEMOD for impact assessment, we explore the economic repercussions on not only the broiler sector but also on the maize and pork sectors in Hungary. Our findings indicate that simultaneous implementation of the EFSA recommendations -reducing the growth rate to 50 g/day and lowering the stocking density to 11 kg/m² -could result in a substantial 72.4% reduction in chicken meat production in Hungary from the presumed enforcement year of 2023 through 2032, the end of the AGMEMOD baseline projection period. This reduction could not only impact the broiler industry but also have ripple effects on related sectors such as pork and maize. However, if only EFSA's recommendation to reduce the growth rate to 50 g/day is considered, an 18% reduction in chicken meat production is projected for Hungary.