Assessment Methods Analysis of Models Reliability of Emergency Response in Emergency Situations

Abstract

Abstract. In this paper author showed that use of the of the models (plans) of emergency response in the emergency situations conditions developed for the Situational centers a priori doesn't guarantee their proper accomplishment. It is caused by existence of probability of failure in delivery and use of necessary resources for a variety of reasons. Authors proved need of check of models' feasibility degree before the moment of their application in real emergency situation. It gives the chance for advance adjustment of models. They proved complexity of the objective solution by a variety reasons: a lot of the involved structures, a variety of necessary resources, their spatial distribution and others. Authors carried out the analysis of the researches in this direction. They proved that any work doesn't solve problem in a complex. Authors described the most suitable for the specified task solution the method of Function-Interaction-Structure (FIS). They showed that use of Fault-Trees of the FIS method in combination with multi-Level system approach will yield the best result of developed models assessment, will provide knowledge of probability of implementation of the emergency reaction models which are in state of multi-level degradation of resources at the time of emergency.