Assessment of the structural changes of the national economy of Ukraine based on the consistency

Abstract

This article deals with the assessment of the structural changes of the national economy of Ukraine, which proposed to implement by applying the integrated index of structural changes, assessment of the structural changes of the sectoral structure of GDP, at determining the weighting coefficients and construction which uses the “golden ratio” rule. This approach is based on the theoretical completion of the economics as for the progressive development and transformation of society and the economy of the country according to the technological criterion, as well as the sectoral division of the national economy. The choice of components of the integrated index for structural changes is due to the sectoral division of GDP into industry, agriculture and services, and further distribution according to the sectoral structure of the national economy. The proposed integrated index reflects the consistent (ideal) GDP structure inherent in the post-industrial economy, while the deviation of the values in the real structure shows structural changes in the national economy of Ukraine and 28 countries of the European Union. The research justifies the weighting coefficients for the selected sectors of the economy, depending on the technological complexity of the process of producing goods (works, services). The article deals with the results of the calculation of the integrated index of the structural changes in the sectoral structure of GDP and its structural elements, as well as the analysis of the reasons for the deviations of real indicators from the consistent ones. The calculations show the crisis phenomena in both the Ukrainian economy and the EU countries, which are explained by the debt crisis in the EU in 2013 and the release of the UK with the EU. The domestic economy shows significant deviations in virtually all sectors, indicating a low level of economy, a non-conformity between supply and demand in the labor market, a low level of innovation, and the inertia of transformational processes in the transition to the post-industrial stage of production. The application of the proposed methodology will allow us to identify strategic directions for the development of sectors of the national economy and develop projection scenarios

Machine learning for prediction of emergent economy dynamics

“…This article highlights further research by the authors, begun in [58,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69].…”

Structural Changes and the Ukrainian Labour Market Organisation

“…The domestic economy shows significant deviations in virtually all sectors. It indicates a low level of the economy, a non-conformity between supply and demand in the labor market, a low level of innovation, and the inertia of transformational processes in the transition to the post-industrial stage of production [7]. Oliskevych and Lukianenko [8] propose an econometric model which describes changes in the level of employment in the region as a whole and separately in agriculture and industry.…”

Labor Market Organization in Ukraine: Challenges and Perspectives

“…Kovtun et al [8] focused on the estimation of the integrated index of the structural changes in Ukraine. This indicator displays deviation values in structure to a sectoral division of gross domestic product (GDP) into industry, agriculture, and services depending on the technological complexity of the process of producing goods (works and services) [8]. Lunina [9] examined the economic consequences of Russia's aggression against Ukraine and anticipated severe economic loss.…”