Association between the epidemiological situation of COVID-19 and the armed conflict in Ukraine: a mathematical modeling approach

Abstract

This paper investigates a mathematical model for the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the context of the Ukrainian crisis by considering a population of six (06) compartments: Susceptible, Exposed, Known Infected, Unknown Infected, Recovered, Deaths. This model is used to simulate the propagation of COVID-19 in Ukraine during and after the Ukrainian conflict. The findings revealed that during the conflict the number of infected in Ukraine will increase significantly more than if the world had no known that conflict. The infected for most will not be detected in the period of the conflict. An increase of infected people will occur in undetected infected group while in known infected compartment, this will not be observed. Furthermore, at the end of the conflict, the unknown infected will be tested leading to a brutal increasing of number of infected detected in the population.