Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Massoud, Elias; Massoud, Theresa; Guan, Bin; Sengupta, Agniv; Espinoza, Vicky; Luna, Michelle De; Raymond, Colin; Waliser, Duane E.

doi:10.3390/w12102863

Cited by 39 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…Some Pamir ARs have also been found to extend backwards across northern Africa. Massoud et al (2020) documented an AR on January 25, 1994 that stretched over 12,000 km from western North Africa to the Karakoram. This was an anomalous case as the majority of the other ARs that impact the Middle East and Northern Africa were found to originate over the North Atlantic and dissipate in Iran where the Zagros Mountains in western Iran reach heights of 1250 m (Massoud et al, 2020).…”

Section: Characterization Of Synoptic Subtypesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Massoud et al (2020) documented an AR on January 25, 1994 that stretched over 12,000 km from western North Africa to the Karakoram. This was an anomalous case as the majority of the other ARs that impact the Middle East and Northern Africa were found to originate over the North Atlantic and dissipate in Iran where the Zagros Mountains in western Iran reach heights of 1250 m (Massoud et al, 2020). Another example of a Pamir AR that traversed northern Africa and ultimately ended in western Himalayas was documented in Dezfuli (2020) as well as Massoud et al (2020).…”

Section: Characterization Of Synoptic Subtypesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This was an anomalous case as the majority of the other ARs that impact the Middle East and Northern Africa were found to originate over the North Atlantic and dissipate in Iran where the Zagros Mountains in western Iran reach heights of 1250 m (Massoud et al, 2020). Another example of a Pamir AR that traversed northern Africa and ultimately ended in western Himalayas was documented in Dezfuli (2020) as well as Massoud et al (2020). This AR, named "AR Dena", resulted in widespread flooding, particularly in Iran (Dezfuli, 2020).…”

Section: Characterization Of Synoptic Subtypesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…. Moreover, ARs modulate extreme precipitation and anomalous snow accumulation in many other regions including Antarctica (Gorodetskaya et al, 2014;Bozkurt et al, 2018;Gorodetskaya et al, 2020), Australia and New Zealand (Kingston et al, 2016;Ye et al, 2020;Prince et al, 2021;Reid et al, 2021), the Arctic Ocean and Greenland (Baggett et al, 2016;Hegyi and Taylor, 2018;Mattingly et al, 2018;Neff, 2018;Wernli and Papritz, 2018;Wille et al, 2019;Mattingly et al, 2020), South America (Viale and Nunez, 2011;Viale et al, 2018;Ramos et al, 2019), North Africa (Blamey et al, 2018;Akbary et al, 2019;Dezfuli, 2020;Massoud et al, 2020), and East Asia (Naoi et al, 2020;Pan and Lu, 2020).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Winter And Spring Atmospheric Rivers In High Mountain Asia: Climatology, Dynamics, And Variability

Nash¹,

Carvalho²

2021

Preprint

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Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) that reach the complex terrain of High Mountain Asia (HMA) cause significant hydrological impacts for millions of people. While ARs are often associated with precipitation extremes and can cause floods and debris flows affecting populated communities, little is known about ARs that reach as far inland as HMA. This paper characterizes AR types and investigates dynamical mechanisms associated with the development of ARs that typically affect HMA. Combined empirical orthogonal function (cEOF) analysis using integrated water vapor transport (IVT) is applied to days where an AR reaches HMA. K-means cluster analysis applied to the first two principal components uncovered three subtypes of AR events with distinct synoptic characteristics during winter and spring months. The first subtype increases precipitation and IVT in the Karakoram and is associated with a zonally oriented wave train propagating within the westerly jet waveguide. The second subtype is associated with enhanced southwesterly IVT, anomalous upper-level cyclonic circulation centered on 45°E, and precipitation in the Pamirs. The third subtype shows anomalous precipitation in the Eastern Himalayas and southwesterly IVT across the Bay of Bengal. Interannual variations in the frequency of HMA ARs and relationships with various teleconnection patterns show that western HMA AR subtypes are sensitive to well-known remote large-scale climate factors, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and the Siberian High. These results provide synoptic characterization of the three types of ARs that reach HMA and reveal the previously unexplored significance of their contribution to winter and spring precipitation.

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Section: Characterization Of Synoptic Subtypesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Characterization Of Synoptic Subtypesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Characterization Of Synoptic Subtypesmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Winter And Spring Atmospheric Rivers In High Mountain Asia: Climatology, Dynamics, And Variability

Nash¹,

Carvalho²

2021

Preprint

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“…Zhu et al, 1998;Gimeno et al, 2014;Gimeno et al, 2016;Shields et al, 2019). Associated with intense precipitation they can be a strong contributor to the local groundwater inventory in regions prone to droughts and thus play an important role for the local water management (Lavers and Villarini, 2015;Gimeno et al, 2016), for example in dry areas of the Middle East or North Africa (Massoud et al, 2020). On the other hand AR induced heavy precipitation can likewise cause tremendous economical damage due to flooding (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric Rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high resolution regional climate model

Gröger

Dieterich

Dutheil

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (AR) are important drivers of heavy precipitation events in western and central Europe and often associated with intense floods. So far, the ARs response to climate change in Europe has been investigated by global climate models within the CMIP5 framework. However, their spatial resolution between 1 and 3° is too coarse for an adequate assessment of local to regional precipitation patterns. Using a regional climate model with 0.22° resolution we downscale an ensemble of 24 global climate simulations following the greenhouse gas scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. The performance of the model was tested against ER-I reanalysis data. The downscaled simulation notably better represents small-scale spatial characteristics which is most obvious over the terrain of the Iberian Peninsula where the AR induced precipitation pattern clearly reflect eat-west striking topographical elements resulting in zonal bands of high and low AR impact. Over central Europe the model simulates a less far propagation of ARs toward eastern Europe compared to ERA-I but a higher share of AR forced heavy precipitation events especially Norway where 60 % of annual precipitation maxima are related to ARs. We find ARs more frequent and more intense in a future warmer climate especially in the higher emission scenarios whereas the changes are mostly mitigated under the assumption of RCP2.6. They also propagate further inland to eastern Europe in a warmer climate. In the high emission scenario RCP8.5 AR induced precipitation rates increase between 20 and 40 % in western central Europe while mean precipitation rates increase by maximal 12 %. Over the Iberian Peninsula AR induced precipitation rates slightly decrease around −6 % but mean rates decrease around −15 %. The result of these changes is an overall increased contribution of ARs to heavy precipitation with greatest impact over Iberia (15–30 %). Over Norway average AR precipitation rates decline between −5 to −30 %. These reductions most likely the originate from regional dynamical changes. In fact, over Norway we find ARs originating from > 60° N are reduced by up to 20 % while those originating south of 45° N are increased. Also, no clear climate change signal is seen for AR related heavy precipitation and annual maximum precipitation over Norway where the uncertainty of the ensemble is quite large.

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A Dusty Atmospheric River Brings Floods to the Middle East

Dezfuli¹,

Bosilovich²,

Barahona

2021

Preprint

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Torrential rainfall and rapid snowmelt in April 2017 caused deadly floods in northwestern Iran. An atmospheric river (AR), propagating across the Middle East and North Africa, was found responsible for this extreme event. The snowmelt was triggered by precipitation and warm advection associated with the AR. Total satellite-based rainfall for April 2017 was moderately below normal, suggesting that a heavy flood can happen during dry years. The AR was fed by moisture from the Mediterranean and Red Seas. Despite its adverse societal consequences, this event was beneficial to the recovery of the desiccating Lake Urmia. The impacts of this AR were not limited to flooding; it also facilitated dust transport to the region. This distinct characteristic of the ARs in the Middle East is attributed to major mineral dust sources located along their pathways. This event was reasonably predicted at 7-day lead time, crucially important for successful early warning systems.

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Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Cited by 39 publications

References 76 publications

Winter And Spring Atmospheric Rivers In High Mountain Asia: Climatology, Dynamics, And Variability

Winter And Spring Atmospheric Rivers In High Mountain Asia: Climatology, Dynamics, And Variability

Atmospheric Rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high resolution regional climate model

A Dusty Atmospheric River Brings Floods to the Middle East

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