Backward bifurcation and sensitivity analysis for bacterial meningitis transmission dynamics with a nonlinear recovery rate

Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K.; Nyabadza, Farai; Jin, Zhen; Bonyah, Ebenezer; Khan, Muhammad Altaf; Li, Michael Y.; Hayat, Tasawar

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110237

Cited by 45 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…It divides the various parameters into equal even intervals and indiscriminately draws one sample from each equal interval once. LHS is usually carried out with partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) to estimate the nonlinearity between the parameters, and also the unmodulated, relationship between model parameters [3,25]. Using the LHS with 2500 samples from a uniform distribution, the parameters in the basic reproduction number R 0 , were employed to obtain the global sensitivity of the various parameters in R 0 .…”

Section: Global Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Stability and Sensitivity Assessment of COVID-19 with Timely and Delayed Diagnosis in Ghana

Moore

Nyandjo-Bamen

Asamoah

et al. 2021

Preprint

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In this paper, we present the dynamical effects of timely and delayed diagnosis on the spread of COVID-19 in Ghana, using reported data from March 12 to June 19, 2020. The estimated basic reproduction number, R_0, for the proposed model is 1.04. One of the main focus of this study is stability results and senesitity assessment of the parameters. We show both theoretically and numerically that, the disease can be eliminated when the basic reproduction number is less or equal to a unity. Furthermore, we show that the disease persist whenever R_0>1 or whenever there is a delay in the diagnoses of infected individuals in the community. To assess the most influential parameters in the basic reproduction number, we carried out global sensitivity analysis. The scatter plots and the partial rank correlation coefficient reveal that, the most positive sensitive parameter is the recruitment rate, followed by the relative transmissibility of exposed individuals; and that the most negative sensitive parameters are the proportion of the infectious with timely diagnosis, and the transition rate of self-quarantined individuals to the susceptible population. For public health benefit, our analysis suggests that, a reduction in the inflow of new individuals into the country or a reduction in the inter community inflow of individuals will reduce the basic reproduction number and thereby reduce the number of secondary infections (multiple peaks of the infection).

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Section: Global Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Stability and Sensitivity Assessment of COVID-19 with Timely and Delayed Diagnosis in Ghana

Moore

Nyandjo-Bamen

Asamoah

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…The study of model system (2) is performed with the following initial conditions: Next, we give the feasible region for model system (2). First, we obtain the feasible region Ω H for the human population Similarly, the feasible region for the pathogen population is obtained as Finally, the positive invariant region for model system ( 2) is obtained as Ω = Ω H × Ω P .…”

Section: Mathematical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Backward bifurcation in a cholera model with a general treatment function

Sharma

Singh

2021

SN Appl. Sci.

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“…A mathematical model for bacterial meningitis to include nonlinear recovery rate was proposed so as to show instances for forward and backward bifurcation. Also, the sensitivity heat map was implored which showed that the most sensitive state variable to all parameters in the model during none seasonal transmission is the recovery class followed by the susceptible class; and that the most sensitive state variable during seasonal transmission is the susceptible class followed by the carrier-class [11].…”

Section: Background To the Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the Relationship between Cerebrospinal Meningitis and Climate Variables in Kaduna State, Nigeria

Nchom

Abubakar

Arimoro

et al. 2021

IJECC

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This study examines the relationship between Meningitis and weather parameters (air temperature, maximum temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall) in Kaduna state, Nigeria on a weekly basis from 2007–2019. Meningitis data was acquired weekly from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), Bureau of Statistics and weather parameters were sourced from daily satellite data set National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). The daily data were aggregated weekly to suit the study. The data were analysed using linear trend and Pearson correlation for relationship. The linear trend results revealed a weekly decline in Cerebro Spinal Meningitis (CSM), wind speed, maximum and air temperature and an increase in relative humidity and rainfall. Generally, results reveal that the most important explanatory weather variables influencing CSM amongst the five (5) are the weekly maximum temperature and air temperature with a positive correlation of 0.768 and 0.773. This study recommends that keen interest be placed on temperature as they play an essential role in the transmission of this disease and most times aggravate the patients' condition.

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Backward bifurcation and sensitivity analysis for bacterial meningitis transmission dynamics with a nonlinear recovery rate

Cited by 45 publications

References 25 publications

Global Stability and Sensitivity Assessment of COVID-19 with Timely and Delayed Diagnosis in Ghana

Global Stability and Sensitivity Assessment of COVID-19 with Timely and Delayed Diagnosis in Ghana

Backward bifurcation in a cholera model with a general treatment function

Assessment of the Relationship between Cerebrospinal Meningitis and Climate Variables in Kaduna State, Nigeria

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