Bankruptcy forecast analysis: empirical study of the manufacturing subsector of Norte de Santander, Colombia

Abstract

The study \"Bankruptcy Forecast Analysis in the Manufacturing Subsector of Norte de Santander, Colombia (2015 – 2022)\" offers an empirical evaluation of financial stability in this region, using the capital structure theory of Modigliani and Miller and the Altman Z-Score model for bankruptcy risks as a theoretical foundation. Through a quantitative approach that includes time series analysis, the internal and external factors that affect the financial competitiveness of the subsector are analyzed. The research highlights the contributions and limitations of capital structure theory and the Z-Score model in real practices, and discusses the integration of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence to fine-tune financial risk predictions. Using purposeful sampling and documentary analysis, patterns are identified and business solvency is assessed, providing a detailed view of the sector\'s resilience in the face of economic challenges. This study provides valuable insights for those interested in the financial sustainability of the manufacturing sector, highlighting the importance of adapting risk management strategies to regional particularities. Its contribution to the specialized literature lies in offering an updated perspective on bankruptcy forecasting and financial management adapted to the specific context of the Colombian emerging economy.