Bayesian analysis for social science research

Abstract

In this manuscript, we discuss the substantial importance of Bayesian reasoning in Social Science research. Particularly, we focus on foundational elements to fit models under the Bayesian paradigm. We aim to offer a frame of reference for a broad audience, not necessarily with specialized knowledge in Bayesian statistics, yet having interest in incorporating this kind of methods in studying social phenomena. We illustrate Bayesian methods through case studies regarding political surveys, population dynamics, and standardized educational testing. Specifically, we provide technical details on specific topics such as conjugate and non-conjugate modeling, hierarchical modeling, Bayesian computation, goodness of fit, and model testing.