Bayesian belief networks for the analysis of the controversial role of hydropower development in the antagonistic agrofood-fisheries nexus: A potential approach supporting sustainable development in the Guayas river basin (Ecuador)

Abstract

Increasing anthropogenic activities are affecting water quality and related ecosystem services in river basins worldwide. There is a need to identify and act on synergies between the water-energy-food (WEF) elements and the other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while mediating trade-offs. The Guayas river basin (GRB), one of the major watersheds in Ecuador, is being affected by increasing urbanization, agricultural and industrial activities. In this perspective paper, we indicate the WEF interactions in the GRB linked to the SDGs. A major challenge is the geographical distance between pressures and impacts, for which environmental and agricultural governance are key to support the needed change towards sustainable development. In particular, the realization of measures to reduce the pollutant input in upstream systems will need both legislative and financial means to solve downstream water quality problems. A Bayesian belief network (BBN) framework was developed in order to support sustainable decision making in the GRB. The discussed concepts can be applied to other river basins worldwide since, in many basins, very similar food production challenges need to be addressed.

Rethinking Agricultural Policy in Ecuador (1960–2020): Analysis Based on the Water–Energy–Food Security Nexus

“…For instance, the Guayas River Basin contains excessive nutrients, especially ammonia, due to pesticide pollution [110]. Another complicating factor is the pressure on the water used for energy generation in hydroelectric dams that impacts on the environment in general and agriculture in particular [133]. There is also a risk due to the water use in biofuels threatening food safety [116].…”

Health Risk-Benefit Assessment of the Commercial Red Mangrove Crab: Implications for a Cultural Delicacy

“…As indicated by the ONE health approach, to reach the SDGs, linking the impact of harmful compounds on the environment and aquatic life with the effects on human health and food security is essential (De Cock et al, 2022b). The link between dietary intake and human nutrient needs and health risks is essential to protect and support public health worldwide.…”