Bayesian Survival Analysis Model for Girth Weld Failure Prediction

Feng, Qingsong; Sha, Shengyi; Dai, Lei

doi:10.3390/app9061150

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Data and databases, pre-eminently the experimental data, have a determinant role in the integrity assessment and integrity management of different structural elements, structures and technical systems, as pipelines and pipeline systems [46,47]. With the help of these data and databases, and using the experimental data with critical approach, -integrity management systems can be established [48][49][50][51]; -integrity assessment and residual life-time calculations can be achieved [52]; -guidelines or rules can be established [53,54]; -survival models can be developed [55]; -and last but not least, management decisions can be made [56,57].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fatigue and burst tests of full-scale girth welded pipeline sections for safe operations

et al. 2023

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The main objective of our ongoing research is data collection for integrity management (IM) tasks, in other words for pipeline integrity management system (PIMS), helping the transporting pipeline operators in different decision situations. Either the reserves of the girth welds after a long-term operation can be identified or the girth welds with different defects should be repaired and/or replaced. From the operators’ point of view, the long-term operation is the cost-effective way; however, from the safety point of view, the managing of the lifecycle of the pipeline is the more reliable way. Unfortunately, inadequate girth welds cause catastrophic damages in transporting pipelines, all over the world. Consequently, the optimal operation of the pipelines is a complex task. The paper introduces our investigation program executed on full-scale pipeline sections. Fatigue (100,000 cycles) and burst tests were executed on different pipeline sections containing girth welds. Long-term operated and replaced gas transporting pipeline sections, furthermore, both appropriate and inadequate girth welds were investigated. The testing results and the damage histories were compared with each other; safety factor (SF) was defined and calculated for the assessment of the reliability of the girth welds.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fatigue and burst tests of full-scale girth welded pipeline sections for safe operations

et al. 2023

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“…The current studies on girth welds focus on the failure mechanism, detection and evaluation, and repair technology, with some research on failure risk prediction. Fortunately, a large amount of data on girth weld construction, operation, failure, and testing accumulated during the construction and operation of pipelines, which provides strong support for the further study of the risk prediction of pipeline girth welds [28,29].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Failure Risk Prediction Model for Girth Welds in High-Strength Steel Pipeline Based on Historical Data and Artificial Neural Network

Wang

Zhang

Guo³

et al. 2023

Processes

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Pipelines are the most economical and sensible way to transport oil and gas. Long-distance oil and gas pipelines consist of many steel pipes or pipe fittings joined by welded girth welds, so girth welds are an essential part of pipelines. Owing to the limitations of welding conditions and the complexity of controlling weld quality in the field, some defects are inevitably present in girth welds and adjacent weld areas. These defects can lead to pipeline safety problems; therefore, it is necessary to perform failure risk assessment of pipeline girth welds. In this study, an artificial neural network model was proposed to predict the failure risk of pipeline girth welds with defects. Firstly, many pipeline girth weld failure cases, pipeline excavation, and inspection data were collected and analyzed to determine the main factors influencing girth weld failure. Secondly, a spatial orthogonal optimization method was used to select training samples for the artificial neural network model to ensure that the training sample set could cover the feature space with a minimum number of samples. Thirdly, a prediction model based on BP neural networks was established to predict the failure risk levels. The training dataset/testing dataset was 602/4215, and the prediction accuracy for all risks of girth welds achieved an acceptable level. This study can provide a valuable reference for pipeline operators to prevent pipeline accidents.

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“…Feng, Q. [19] proposed the staged Bayesian failure model for girth welds of a pipeline, using the tree-type accident theory and Bayesian survival analysis method. Zhao, C. [20] applied the continuous-time Markov chains to analyze reliability of the reconfigurable integrated modular avionics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Novel Risk Assessment and Analysis Method for Correlation in a Complex System Based on Multi-Dimensional Theory

Jiang¹,

Zhao²,

Wang³

et al. 2020

Applied Sciences

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With the rapid development of high integrations in large complex systems, such as aircraft, satellite, and railway systems, due to the increasingly complex coupling relationship between components within the system, local disturbances or faults may cause global effects on the system by fault propagation. Therefore, there are new challenges in safety analysis and risk assessment for complex systems. Aiming at analyzing and evaluating the inherent risks of the complex system with coupling correlation characteristics objectively, this paper proposes a novel risk assessment and analysis method for correlation in complex system based on multi-dimensional theory. Firstly, the formal description and coupling degree analysis method of the hierarchical structure of complex systems is established. Moreover, considering the three safety risk factors of fault propagation probability, potential severity, and fault propagation time, a multi-dimensional safety risk theory is proposed, in order to evaluate the risk of each element within the system effecting on the overall system. Furthermore, critical safety elements are identified based on Pareto rules, As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principles, and safety risk entropy to support the preventive measures. Finally, an application of an avionics system is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

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Bayesian Survival Analysis Model for Girth Weld Failure Prediction

Cited by 9 publications

References 8 publications

Fatigue and burst tests of full-scale girth welded pipeline sections for safe operations

Fatigue and burst tests of full-scale girth welded pipeline sections for safe operations

Failure Risk Prediction Model for Girth Welds in High-Strength Steel Pipeline Based on Historical Data and Artificial Neural Network

A Novel Risk Assessment and Analysis Method for Correlation in a Complex System Based on Multi-Dimensional Theory

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