Best Practice in Government Use and Development of Long-Term Energy Transition Scenarios

Abstract

Long-term energy scenarios (LTES) have been serving as an important planning tool by a wide range of institutions. This article focuses on how LTES have been used (and also devised in some cases) in the government sector, and specifically how the new challenges and opportunities brought by the aspiration for the clean energy transition change the way that governments use LTES. The information tends to remain tacit, and a gap exists in understanding the way to enhance LTES use and development at the government level. To address this gap, we draw on the experience from national institutions that are leading the improvement in official energy scenario planning to articulate a set of overarching best practices to (i) strengthen LTES development, (ii) effectively use LTES for strategic energy planning and (iii) enhance institutional capacity for LTES-based energy planning, all in the context of new challenges associated with the clean energy transition. We present implementation experience collected through the International Renewable Agency’s LTES Network activities to exemplify these best practices. We highlight that in the context of the broad and complex challenges of a clean energy transition driven by ambitious climate targets, the LTES-based energy planning methodologies need to evolve, reflecting the changing landscapes, and that more effective and extensive use of LTES in government needs to be further encouraged.

An Approach to Forecasting the Structure of Energy Generation in the Age of Energy Transition Based on the Automated Determination of Factor Significance

“…One of the fundamental elements of the energy transition is the rapid spread of electricity and heat generation technologies based on non-conventional renewable energy sources (NCRE): solar, wind power plants, small hydropower plants (up to 10-15 MW), tidal, wave and geothermal plants [5][6][7][8]. The modern transformation of energy markets is largely caused by the appearance and development of commercially efficient renewable energy sources [9,10].…”

“…The modern transformation of energy markets is largely caused by the appearance and development of commercially efficient renewable energy sources [9,10]. The Skolkovo report [2] notes a tendency to reduce the total present costs of electricity generation based on various RES technologies by 20-50% depending on the scenario of FEC development (conservative, innovative, energy transition-based scenarios) [5].…”