Bettors' reaction to match dynamics -- Evidence from in-game betting

Abstract

It is still largely unclear to what extent bettors update their prior assumptions about the strength or form of competing teams considering the dynamics during the match. This is of interest not only from the psychological perspective, but also as the pricing of live odds ideally should be driven both by the (objective) outcome probabilities and also the bettors' behaviour. Analysing large and highresolution data from live betting in German football, we find that stakes in the live-betting market are driven both by perceived pre-game strength and by ingame strength as implied by measurable events such as shots and passes. Both effects vary over the course of the match.