Bioclimatic conditions of the Portuguese wine denominations of origin under changing climates

Abstract

Wine production and quality are highly sensitive to local weather variability and climatic conditions. To assess these characteristics, this research examines high‐resolution bioclimatic zoning over 50 protected denominations of origin (DOs)/sub‐regions in mainland Portugal through the analysis of two selected bioclimatic indices (dryness and Huglin indices). The analysis is based on a new very high‐resolution dataset over mainland Portugal and for a baseline period (1981–2015). Climate change projections are also assessed for two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and using a 5‐member climate model ensemble over the future periods of 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. A principal component analysis was applied to the time mean spatial patterns of the two selected bioclimatic indices, for the baseline period (1981–2015) and only over the planted vineyard cover areas in each region, isolating a new optimized combined index which was used for subsequent analysis. The results for the present conditions highlight the spatial variability of Portuguese DO/sub‐regions. This study also shows that for the future periods, and regardless of the scenario, the wine sector in Portugal will likely see important bioclimatic changes across most DOs. Increases in the growing‐season mean temperatures in all the Portuguese winemaking DO/sub‐regions, accompanied by increasing severe dryness, are projected in future climates, mainly in south‐eastern Portugal and along the upper Douro Valley (Douro Superior) in north‐eastern Portugal. These DO/sub‐regions are projected to become much drier than currently so that irrigation or the introduction of new varieties are likely adaptation measures to maintain the viability and sustainability of regional viticulture in future decades.

The Interplay between Atmospheric Conditions and Grape Berry Quality Parameters in Portugal

“…The Alentejo site is indeed close to the widely accepted upper thermal limit for viticultural suitability (22 • C), as previously mentioned. These conditions are in general agreement with several previous studies [39] and highlight that grapevines in Portugal are typically growing under moderate-to-severe water and heat stress conditions during the maturation period, though deficit irrigation systems are applied to avoid severe water stress [40]. Deficit irrigation is applied in order to enhance water management, owing to the low water resources available, as well as to promote berry quality [40].…”

“…Temperature extremes, such as heatwaves, are also an important abiotic stress to take into account in the Portuguese conditions [46]. In addition, Portugal is expected to undergo significant changes in the grapevine growing conditions over the next decades, with warmer and drier climates, thus exacerbating these current limitations [39,47].…”

Future Climate Change Impacts on European Viticulture: A Review on Recent Scientific Advances

“…The climate conditions firmly control canopy microclimate, vine growth, vine physiology, yield and berry composition, thus playing a vital role in the terroir (see also Appendix B) of a given wine region. The strong ties between climate and production in terms of quality and quantity have their most intense expressions in the field of viticulture, the science of grapevine cultivation [17][18][19][20][21]. This is clearly evidenced by the location of the worldwide wine regions within relatively narrow latitude belts that provide Mediterranean climatic conditions for high-quality wine production [22][23][24], but also by the increasing recognition of winegrapes as bio-indicators for the reconstruction of past climate conditions and for documenting global warming due to the climate's variability, primarily due to the thermal availability capable of determining their performance [25][26][27].…”

European grapevine moth in the Douro region: voltinism and climatic scenarios

“…However, in warmer years, a fourth flight has been detected in early September (Carlos et al, 2018), resulting in a fourth generation of damaging larvae during harvest. In terms of the impacts of climate change in the DDR, strong warming and drying trends are projected for the upcoming decades, implying overall shifts in viticultural suitability (Santos et al, 2020), as well as early grapevine phenological events (Costa et al, 2019;Reis et al, 2020).…”