Biomass price developments inhibit biofuel investments and research in Germany: The crucial future role of high yields

Millinger, Markus; Thrän, Daniela

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.175

Cited by 33 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…BENSIM has been more thoroughly described in Millinger et al [5]. For the feedstock costs, BENSIM was expanded with a methodology for estimating the costs of energy crops, through adding the per hectare profit of a benchmark crop (the most commonly grown in the region, i.e., wheat) to the per hectare production cost of the energy crop [3]. The benchmark crop is used for the long-term estimation of price development, and potential short-term variations are excluded.…”

Section: Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The benchmark crop is used for the long-term estimation of price development, and potential short-term variations are excluded. Focus is on estimating minimum price levels at which the energy crops would be as profitable for the farmer as the benchmark food crop [3].…”

Section: Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rape seed-based biodiesel (RME) and starch crop-based bioethanol, both conventional biofuels, are the most common pathways [2]. However, these have a low overall yield and thus limited potential compared to other available options, which also makes them uncompetitive in the long run on an energetic basis [3]. The cost-competitiveness of GHG abatement is also in focus in the German energy transition [4], thus making the GHG abatement cost developments of biofuels highly relevant.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A long-term cost-effective greenhouse gas abatement through the deployment of biofuels requires a thorough analysis of both the highly uncertain future potential costs [3,5], as well as of the uncertain biofuel pathway emissions [6][7][8], both of which depend on numerous factors, with land use as one combining factor. Particularly for biofuels from dedicated crops, the GHG abatement on a land use basis is an important indicator [7], and the discussion around land use has led Germany to set a limit for conventional biofuels [9], albeit on an energetic basis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although both life-cycle emissions of different biofuels (see the reviews by [6,7,10,11]), as well as cost assessments of advanced biofuels [12,13], comparison with fossil fuel costs [14,15] and cost development modeling [3,5] of different biofuels have been well covered in the literature, a combined detailed assessment of GHG abatement cost relations and developments to date has not. Studies on GHG abatement costs for singular fuels and time-points, such as ethanol [16,17] and biogas [18], have been published.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Relative Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Competitiveness of Biofuels in Germany

et al. 2018

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Transport biofuels derived from biogenic material are used for substituting fossil fuels, thereby abating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Numerous competing conversion options exist to produce biofuels, with differing GHG emissions and costs. In this paper, the analysis and modeling of the long-term development of GHG abatement and relative GHG abatement cost competitiveness between crop-based biofuels in Germany are carried out. Presently dominant conventional biofuels and advanced liquid biofuels were found not to be competitive compared to the substantially higher yielding options available: sugar beet-based ethanol for the short-to medium-term least-cost option and substitute natural gas (SNG) for the medium to long term. The competitiveness of SNG was found to depend highly on the emissions development of the power mix. Silage maize-based biomethane was found competitive on a land area basis, but not on an energetic basis. Due to land limitations, as well as cost and GHG uncertainty, a stronger focus on the land use of crop-based biofuels should be laid out in policy.

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Section: Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Relative Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Competitiveness of Biofuels in Germany

et al. 2018

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Assessing the impact of seasonality on bioenergy production from energy crops in Germany, considering just‐in‐time philosophy

Sadr,

Esmaeili Aliabadi,

Avşar

et al. 2024

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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The availability of biomass is strongly influenced by seasonality, which can affect the production of biofuels, biogas, and bio‐based products in the downstream bioenergy supply chain. Rapeseed, maize silage, sugar beet, wheat, and grass from grassland are the most popular energy crops; they play a significant role in the German bioenergy strategy and are being discussed extensively in the current gas shortage context. Most models in the literature assume yearly temporal resolution for these energy crops, which can negatively impact the accuracy of results. This problem is increasingly relevant under weather conditions that are varying increasingly due to climate change; in this study we therefore employ the extended bioenergy optimization model (BENOPTex) to explore the impact of seasonality on the optimal deployment of biomass from energy crops in bioenergy production in the German heat, power, and transport sectors, which typically show high dependency on fossil fuels. First, we increased the model's temporal resolution using available datasets and documents. Next, the varying availability factors were embedded in the optimization model, considering the no‐storage policy for energy crops in accordance with the just‐in‐time philosophy. Finally, the outcomes of the BENOPTex with annual resolution were contrasted with the results including the effects of seasonality, while considering various objective functions. We demonstrated a shift toward the consumption of woody biomass until 2045 due to its longer shelf life and improved storability. The energy demand stemming from summer leisure travel was also anticipated to exceed the bioenergy system's capacity. The insights provided here might be interesting for policymakers who design roadmaps for bioenergy development with a more resilient energy supply.

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Status and Perspectives of Biomass Use for Industrial Process Heat for Industrialized Countries

et al. 2020

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Full reduction of greenhouse gas emissions involves transforming the industrial process heat supply. The status and future perspectives of biomass for industrial heat mainly based on the German example are reviewed, and a more differentiated consideration by a newly introduced method is attempted. The article focuses on temperature levels above 200°C combined with an individual examination of most energy-consuming industrial subsectors according to the feasibility of biomass utilization. Numerous studies conclude that biomass use will shift substantially from residential to industrial heat. Results indicate that biomass could play a bigger role especially for cement and clinker production, but they indicate also a significant need for further research and development to take final conclusions.

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Biomass price developments inhibit biofuel investments and research in Germany: The crucial future role of high yields

Cited by 33 publications

References 21 publications

Relative Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Competitiveness of Biofuels in Germany

Relative Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Competitiveness of Biofuels in Germany

Assessing the impact of seasonality on bioenergy production from energy crops in Germany, considering just‐in‐time philosophy

Status and Perspectives of Biomass Use for Industrial Process Heat for Industrialized Countries

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