Bivalves indicate that the North Atlantic was under stress before the onset of the Little Ice Age

Abstract

<p>The last millennium was characterised by a cooling from the Medieval Warm Period into the Little Ice Age. While strong volcanic eruptions could have triggered the onset of the Little Ice Age by reducing solar irradiance, modelling experiments suggest that it was amplified and maintained by sea ice-ocean feedbacks, including a potential abrupt weakening of the subpolar gyre. The weakening of negative feedbacks that maintain a system in a stable state, prior to an abrupt transition, can be detected as an increase in temporal autocorrelation and variability. Here we use an annually-resolved and absolutely dated shell-derived record from the North Icelandic Shelf that spans the last millennium, to detect such a loss of resilience in the marine environment leading up to the Little Ice Age transition. We find a significant increase in autocorrelation and variance in bivalve growth increments and oxygen isotopes before the transition, providing evidence consistent with loss of stability in the marine environment. This supports the idea that internal feedbacks played an important role in the Little Ice Age onset.</p>