Box office forecasting for a cinema with movie and cinema attributes

Wu, Yongzhong; Huang, Wentao; Lu, Yuxin; Liu, Jiangwen

doi:10.1109/icccbda.2018.8386547

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

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“…We group variables that provide similar information about cinema characteristics, movie characteristics and its popularity, and the macroeconomic conditions of the region. A similar approach was previously proposed, among others, by Hofmann-Stölting et al (2017) and Wu et al (2018). In these studies, we can find variables reflecting product quality, pricing factors, cinema configurations, competition, advertising, and selected external factors.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…Firstly, most of the studies focus on a single factor or a group of factors (most often movie characteristics) that may influence cinema attendance or revenues (e.g., Walls, 2005;Marshall et al, 2013;Treme et al, 2018). As Litman (1983), Hofmann-Stölting et al (2017) and Wu et al (2018) showed, it pays off to include various factors when forecasting the success of movies. To our best knowledge, our set of variables, including factors related to cinema and movie characteristics, title popularity and the economic conditions of the region, is more comprehensive than those used in the literature so far.…”

Section: Contributions To the Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecasting Cinema Attendance at the Movie Show Level: Evidence from Poland

Baranowski

Korczak

Zając

2020

Business Systems Research Journal

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Background: Cinema programmes are set in advance (usually with a weekly frequency), which motivates us to investigate the short-term forecasting of attendance. In the literature on the cinema industry, the issue of attendance forecasting has gained less research attention compared to modelling the aggregate performance of movies. Furthermore, unlike most existing studies, we use data on attendance at the individual show level (179,103 shows) rather than aggregate box office sales.Objectives: In the paper, we evaluate short-term forecasting models of cinema attendance. The main purpose of the study is to find the factors that are useful in forecasting cinema attendance at the individual show level (i.e., the number of tickets sold for a particular movie, time and cinema).Methods/Approach: We apply several linear regression models, estimated for each recursive sample, to produce one-week ahead forecasts of the attendance. We then rank the models based on the out-of-sample fit.Results: The results show that the best performing models are those that include cinema- and region-specific variables, in addition to movie parameters (e.g., genre, age classification) or title popularity.Conclusions: Regression models using a wide set of variables (cinema- and region-specific variables, movie features, title popularity) may be successfully applied for predicting individual cinema shows attendance in Poland.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 77%