Building Regional Sustainable Development Scenarios with the SSP Framework

Shi, Yang; Cui, Xuefeng

doi:10.3390/su11205712

Cited by 15 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…As part of the latest framework for climate change scenarios, shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) were developed based on the traditional representative concentration pathways (RCPs); they incorporate a variety of socioeconomic assumptions such as population, economic growth, and education [16]. Due to China's vast territory and large population, significant socioeconomic and demographic differences may exist among cities and even counties [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

All-cause mortality attributable to long-term changes in mean temperature and diurnal temperature variation in China: a nationwide quasi-experimental study

Ai,

Lu,

Liu

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Background: Previous studies have demonstrated an association between short-term exposure to ambient temperature and mortality. However, the long-term effects of elevated temperature and temperature variability on mortality have remained somewhat elusive in epidemiological studies.Methods: We conducted a comprehensive epidemiological study utilizing Chinese population census data from 2000 and 2010. Census-derived demographic and socioeconomic factors were paired with temperature data from the European Re-Analysis Land Dataset across 2823 counties. We employed a difference-in-difference approach to quantitatively examine the relationship between all-cause mortality and annual exposure to mean temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR). Additionally, we evaluated the potential effects of socioeconomic and environmental covariate modifications on this relationship and calculated the attributable mortality. Lastly, we projected excess deaths attributable to annual temperature exposure under various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs, e.g., SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585).Results: For each 1℃ rise in annual mean temperature and DTR, the mortality risk could increase by 6.12% (95% CI: 0.84%, 11.69%) and 7.72% (95% CI: 3.75%, 11.84%), respectively. Counties with high labor-force ratios and high NO2 and O3 concentrations appeared to be sensitive to the annual mean temperature and DTR. Climate warming from 2000 to 2010 may have resulted in 5.85 and 14.46 additional deaths per 10,000 people attributable to changes in annual mean temperature and DTR, respectively. The excess mortality related to changes in annual mean temperature and DTR is expected to increase in the future, with special attention warranted for long-term temperature changes in Southwest China. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that long-term mean temperature and DTR could significantly impact mortality rates. Given the spatial heterogeneity of increased mortality risk, the formulation of region-specific strategies to tackle climate change is crucial.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

All-cause mortality attributable to long-term changes in mean temperature and diurnal temperature variation in China: a nationwide quasi-experimental study

Ai,

Lu,

Liu

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Frameworks have been developed and applied to address climate change from a variety of perspectives from urban and city planning (Solecki et al, 2015), including those with a focus on nature-based solutions (Albert et al, 2021;Mansur et al, 2022), to regional planning (Yang and Cui, 2019) to a variety of sectors such as public health (Bikomeye et al, 2021). Such framework studies vary in the methods, but all include some means of expert assessment and review of key literature or evidence before constructing a framework, typology or set of best practices.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frameworks to envision equitable urban futures in a changing climate: A multi-level, multidisciplinary case study of New York City

Balk

Daniela²,

Jiang³

et al. 2022

Front. Built Environ.

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Cities are at the forefront of climate change action and planning for futures that are concomitantly more resilient and equitable, making local goals imperative for global sustainability. Under the multiple challenges of changing climatic, ecological and socio-economic conditions, cities need the means to meet these goals. We know cities are and will continue to be points of concentrated and diverse populations, socioeconomic vulnerability, amplified exposure, transformed ecosystems and are responsible for the bulk of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, much is also unknown and intrinsically uncertain about urban futures: there is a range of potential plausible futures which have differing implications for both potential mitigation and adaptation actions. To better assess these plausible futures, the “global change” research community developed a framework including scenarios that are applicable for global and regional policy, entitled the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and scenarios exploring future emissions that will drive climate change, entitled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Importantly, this global scale framework does not include specific city-level perspectives or data at the spatial scales necessary to address questions of local relevance. While the SSPs address many of the key population and socioeconomic drivers of climate change, they do not address important concerns that are particularly relevant to cities, such as racial justice, ecosystem change or migration. Nevertheless, city-level impacts will evolve, in part, as a function of the global scale change characterized by the SSPs, and in part based on demographic and social processes already underway. As such, applying a modification of this framework to cities has the potential to help limit local climate impacts, and create a more resilient, equitable city. To address these needs and respond to city and regional stakeholders, we propose a framework for science-based narratives and quantitative projections for cities and metropolitan areas, such as Greater New York City. In this paper, we review a wide-range of existing approaches to generate estimates of future populations and identify their vulnerabilities to climate-change hazards, ranging from subnational population projections or the spatially-explicit allocation of populations linked to SSPs for the US and selected cities, city-specific population forecasting without climate considerations, and participatory approaches to future scenario development and fine-scale, within-city land use change models. By showcasing the strengths and limitations of various approaches and modeling efforts, their spatial and temporal scales, and thematic breadth, we propose a novel framework that leverages state-of-the art quantitative approaches and couples it with stakeholder engagement that can help cities plan equitably under uncertainty.

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“…These scenarios define future socioeconomic tendencies that encompass a variety of likely effects and comprise: a world of sustainability and fairness (SSPs1); a business as usual scenario following historical trends (SSPs2); a divided world of growing nationalism (SSPs3); a world of continually and growing inequality (SSPs4); and a world of unrestrained economic growth with high levels of energy use (SSPs5) (Riahi et al, 2017). For a discussion of limitations of the SSP scenarios see and Shuhui & Xuefeng (2019).…”

Section: Survey Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and future trends in socio-economic, demographic and governance factors affecting global primate conservation

Estrada

Garber

Chaudhary

2020

PeerJ

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Currently, ~65% of extant primate species (ca 512 species) distributed in 91 countries in the Neotropics, mainland Africa, Madagascar, South Asia and Southeast Asia are threatened with extinction and 75% have declining populations as a result of deforestation and habitat loss resulting from increasing global market demands, and land conversion for industrial agriculture, cattle production and natural resource extraction. Other pressures that negatively impact primates are unsustainable bushmeat hunting, the illegal trade of primates as pets and as body parts, expanding road networks in previously isolated areas, zoonotic disease transmission and climate change. Here we examine current and future trends in several socio-economic factors directly or indirectly affecting primates to further our understanding of the interdependent relationship between human well-being, sustainable development, and primate population persistence. We found that between 2001 and 2018 ca 191 Mha of tropical forest (30% canopy cover) were lost as a result of human activities in the five primate range regions. Forty-six percent of this loss was in the Neotropics (Mexico, Central and South America), 30% in Southeast Asia, 21% in mainland Africa, 2% in Madagascar and 1% in South Asia. Countries with the greatest losses (ca 57% of total tree cover loss) were Brazil, Indonesia, DRC, China, and Malaysia. Together these countries harbor almost 50% of all extant primate species. In 2018, the world human population was estimated at ca 8bn people, ca 60% of which were found in primate range countries. Projections to 2050 and to 2100 indicate continued rapid growth of the human populations in these five primate range regions, with Africa surpassing all the other regions and totaling ca 4bn people by the year 2100. Socioeconomic indicators show that, compared to developed nations, most primate range countries are characterized by high levels of poverty and income inequality, low human development, low food security, high levels of corruption and weak governance. Models of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs) projected to 2050 and 2100 showed that whereas practices of increasing inequality (SSP4) or unconstrained growth in economic output and energy use (SSP5) are projected to have dire consequences for human well-being and primate survivorship, practices of sustainability-focused growth and equality (SSP1) are expected to have a positive effect on maintaining biodiversity, protecting environments, and improving the human condition. These results stress that improving the well-being, health, and security of the current and future human populations in primate range countries are of paramount importance if we are to move forward with effective policies to protect the world’s primate species and promote biodiversity conservation.

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Building Regional Sustainable Development Scenarios with the SSP Framework

Cited by 15 publications

References 57 publications

All-cause mortality attributable to long-term changes in mean temperature and diurnal temperature variation in China: a nationwide quasi-experimental study

All-cause mortality attributable to long-term changes in mean temperature and diurnal temperature variation in China: a nationwide quasi-experimental study

Frameworks to envision equitable urban futures in a changing climate: A multi-level, multidisciplinary case study of New York City

Current and future trends in socio-economic, demographic and governance factors affecting global primate conservation

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