2023
DOI: 10.33423/jabe.v25i6.6571
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Business Cycle Downturn Likelihood Estimation for Ciudad Juarez

Steven L. Fullerton,
Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr.

Abstract: A monthly frequency metropolitan business cycle downturn likelihood equation is estimated for Ciudad Juarez. The binary index of economic conditions is based upon monthly IMMEX export oriented manufacturing employment. A dynamic probit methodology is used for parameter estimation. Continuous explanatory variables include a 1-year minus 1-month Mexico interest rate spread, a 2015 = 100 weighted real exchange rate index, and a 10-year minus 3-month USA interest rate spread. Parameter estimation results confirm t… Show more

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