Busting the Boom–Bust Pattern of Development in the Brazilian Amazon

Abstract

Global ecosystem services are clearly threatened by deforestation associated with the human occupation and economic development of the Brazilian Amazon. However, the prognosis for the socioeconomic wellbeing of inhabitants remains unclear. In an empirical regularity that has been termed the "boom-bust" pattern or the "resource curse," the exploitation of natural resources is associated with short-run gains in welfare that dissipate over time. This "coupling hypothesis" asserts that deforestation and development are correlated such that deforestation leads to only short term advances in economic welfare that are not sustained once natural forests (along with their mature timber and soil inputs) are exhausted. In contrast, the "decoupling hypothesis" asserts that deforestation and development need not be correlated over time. In this context, growth that is initially based on deforestation may be sustained and translated into prolonged welfare gains, even once the forest is exhausted. Using census and deforestation data from 1991, 2000 and 2010 for municipalities (i.e. counties) in the Amazon region we confirm that this boom-bust pattern appears in cross-sectional data. However, using panel data we show that socioeconomic welfare has become decoupled from environmental factors and is converging to rising national averages. Our findings contradict the conventional wisdom that the exploitation of tropical forests is required to promote Amazonian development.

Examining the sustainability and development challenge in agricultural-forest frontiers of the Amazon Basin through the eyes of locals

“…Further, these results appear not to demonstrate the uncoupling of agricultural development from environmental degradation as identified in Brazil (Caviglia- Harris et al, 2016). However, focussing solely upon the local-scale economic and social benefits of such extractive strategies, as touched upon by Celentano et al (2012), may ignore their wider national developmental benefits.…”

“…Since the 1960s, deforestation and forest degradation have weakened the basin's natural function, causing a substantial loss of biodiversity, provision of ecosystem services, and changes in local and global weather patterns (Harris et al, 2012;Haddad et al, 2015;Zemp et al, 2017). Weak governments and political instability in Amazonian countries have reduced capacity to halt deforestation and related expansion of illegal activities (Celentano et al, 2012;Rodrigues-Filho et al, 2015). Recent increases in de-Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.…”

“…Agricultural and extraction activities are cited as major drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in the Amazon basin (Hosonuma et al, 2012;García et al, 2019). These activities have, in many cases, been supported by policies to encourage rural development whose lasting benefits are unclear (Rodrigues et al, 2009;Celentano et al, 2012;Oliviera et al, 2013;Weinhold et al, 2015). Policies concentrating upon agricultural intensification and resource extraction may provide economic gains (Le Tourneau et al, 2013;Ioris, 2016), but they may also have negative long-term social and environmental impacts (Weinhold et al, 2015).…”

Adaptive Forest Governance in Northwestern Mato Grosso, Brazil: Pilot project outcomes across agrarian reform landscapes

“…The systemic socio‐ecological outcomes observed in PA Vale involved engagement with institutional and economic complexity, in contrast to conceptualizations of Amazon frontiers that have posited the exhaustion of natural resources as the organic condition of ‘boom and bust’ patterns of development (Rodrigues et al, ). The systemic complexity underlying this case leads us to join others in questioning reductionist models for development and environmental change, either within settlements or across the region (Weinhold et al, ; Caviglia‐Harris et al, ). We plead for a focus on institutional and policy mix enablers and pathways toward sustainable landscapes in the Brazilian Amazon.…”

Examining the sustainability and development challenge in agricultural-forest frontiers of the Amazon Basin through the eyes of locals

“…A further possibility may lie in the results of recent analyses (e.g. Weinhold et al, 2015;Caviglia-Harris et al, 2016). These Nat.…”