Calculation and visualisation of future glacier extent in the Swiss Alps by means of hypsographic modelling

Paul, Frank; Maisch, Max; Rothenbühler, C.; Hoelzle, Martin; Haeberli, Wilfried

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.08.003

Cited by 67 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…We consider (1) the "AAR-method", and (2) "nondynamic downwasting". In previous studies assessing the glacier retreat in the 21st century a simple method based on the accumulation area ratio (AAR) was applied (Horton et al, 2006;Schaefli et al, 2007;Paul et al, 2007). It is assumed that the glacierized area A gl is proportional to the multi-year mean accumulation area A acc , which is calculated based on climate variables.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future high-mountain hydrology: a new parameterization of glacier retreat

Huss

Jouvet

Farinotti

et al. 2010

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

242

222

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Abstract. Global warming is expected to significantly affect the runoff regime of mountainous catchments. Simple methods for calculating future glacier change in hydrological models are required in order to reliably assess economic impacts of changes in the water cycle over the next decades. Models for temporal and spatial glacier evolution need to describe the climate forcing acting on the glacier, and ice flow dynamics. Flow models, however, demand considerable computational resources and field data input and are moreover not applicable on the regional scale. Here, we propose a simple parameterization for calculating the change in glacier surface elevation and area, which is mass conserving and suited for hydrological modelling. The h-parameterization is an empirical glacier-specific function derived from observations in the past that can easily be applied to large samples of glaciers. We compare the h-parameterization to results of a 3-D finite-element ice flow model. As case studies, the evolution of two Alpine glaciers of different size over the period 2008-2100 is investigated using regional climate scenarios. The parameterization closely reproduces the distributed ice thickness change, as well as glacier area and length predicted by the ice flow model. This indicates that for the purpose of transient runoff forecasts, future glacier geometry change can be approximated using a simple parameterization instead of complex ice flow modelling. Furthermore, we analyse alpine glacier response to 21st century climate change and consequent shifts in the runoff regime of a highly glacierized catchment using the proposed methods.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future high-mountain hydrology: a new parameterization of glacier retreat

Huss

Jouvet

Farinotti

et al. 2010

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

242

222

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The decrease in glacier area (in percent of the total area) is particularly high for small, low-lying and isolated glaciers like Yanamarey and Pastoruri. A certain shift of the ELA (as a result of a combination of climatic parameters involved, Kaser, 1995) has a much stronger effect on the AAR of a small glacier than the one of a large glacier (Paul et al, 2007), which makes small glaciers more sensitive to climate change (e.g. Rabatel et al, 2013).…”

Section: Glacier Retreatmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate trends and glacier retreat in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, revisited

Schauwecker

Rohrer

Acuña

et al. 2014

Global and Planetary Change

122

108

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The total glacial area of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, has shrunk by more than 30% in the period of 1930 to the present with a marked glacier retreat also in the recent decades. The aim of this paper is to assess local air temperature and precipitation changes in the Cordillera Blanca and to discuss how these variables could have affected the observed glacier retreat between the 1980s and present. A unique data set from a large number of stations in the region of the Cordillera Blanca shows that after a strong air temperature rise of about 0.31°C per decade between 1969 and 1998, a slowdown in the warming to about 0.13°C per decade occurred for the 30 years from 1983 to 2012. Additionally, based on data from a long-term meteorological station, it was found that the freezing line altitude during precipitation days has probably not increased significantly in the last 30 years. We documented a cooling trend for maximum daily air temperatures and an increase in precipitation of about 60 mm/decade since the early 1980s. The strong increase in precipitation in the last 30 years probably did not balance the increase of temperature before the 1980s. It is suggested that recent changes in temperature and precipitation alone may not explain the glacial recession within the thirty years from the early 1980s to 2012. Glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca may be still reacting to the positive air temperature rise before 1980. Especially small and low-lying glaciers are characterised by a serious imbalance and may disappear in the near future.

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“…The glacier modules of most hydrological models, however, are static and do not allow a transient simulation of the ice melt contribution (e.g., Schaefli et al, 2005;Rössler et al, 2012;Bavay et al, 2013). In these studies, glacier area is updated in discrete time steps assuming the glacier to be in equilibrium with current climate conditions according to the so-called Accumulation Area Ratio (AAR)-method (Paul et al, 2007). Glacier surface elevation is kept constant.…”

Section: Experiments Vi: Glacier Retreatmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Experiment VI, glacier area A is updated in 10-year time intervals based on the calculated area of the accumulation zone A acc and AAR 0 ¼ 60% (Paul et al, 2007) as…”

Section: Experiments Vi: Glacier Retreatmentioning

confidence: 99%

High uncertainty in 21st century runoff projections from glacierized basins

Huss

Zemp

Joerg

et al. 2014

Journal of Hydrology

106

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Glacier response to a changing climate and its impact on runoff is understood in general terms, but model-based projections are affected by considerable uncertainties. They originate from the driving climate model, input data quality, and simplifications in the glacio-hydrological model and hamper the reliability of the simulations. Here, an integrative assessment of the uncertainty in 21st century glacier runoff is provided based on experiments using the Glacier Evolution Runoff Model (GERM) applied to the catchment of Findelengletscher, Switzerland. GERM is calibrated and validated in a multi-objective approach and is run using nine Regional Climate Models (RCMs) until 2100. Among others, the hydrological impacts of the RCM downscaling procedure, the winter snow accumulation, the surface albedo and the calculation of ice melt and glacier retreat are investigated. All experiments indicate rapid glacier wastage and a transient runoff increase followed by reduced melt season discharge. However, major uncertainties in, e.g., glacier area loss (À100% to À63%) and the change in annual runoff (À57% to +25% relative to today) by 2100 are found. The impact of model assumptions on changes in August runoff is even higher (À94% to À5%). The spread in RCM results accounts for 20-50% of the overall uncertainty in modeled discharge. Initial ice thickness, the amount and spatial distribution of winter snow and the glacier retreat model have the largest effect on the projections, whereas the RCM downscaling procedure, calibration data quality and the melt model (energy balance vs. degree-day approach) are of secondary importance.

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Calculation and visualisation of future glacier extent in the Swiss Alps by means of hypsographic modelling

Cited by 67 publications

References 45 publications

Future high-mountain hydrology: a new parameterization of glacier retreat

Future high-mountain hydrology: a new parameterization of glacier retreat

Climate trends and glacier retreat in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, revisited

High uncertainty in 21st century runoff projections from glacierized basins

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