Calibrating the parameters of the cholera epidemic spread model

Abstract

A system-dynamic model of cholera spread, which takes into account different ways of infection and restrictive measures, is developed. The model allows calibration of a large number of system parameters based on data on the number of infected real observations. Three scenarios of epidemic development (blurred peak, pronounced peak, plateau and two peaks) are investigated. The developed model can be modified for other scenarios and epidemics. Its implementation does not require large computing and human resources. It can be used to pre-predict the dynamics of the epidemic, as well as to organize effective measures to prevent threats associated with a pandemic.