Can a greenhouse gas emissions tax on food also be healthy and equitable? A systematized review and modelling study from Aotearoa New Zealand

Abstract

Introduction: Policies to mitigate climate change are essential. The objective of this paper was to estimate the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) food taxes and assess whether such a tax could also have health benefits and reduce ethnic inequalities in health in Aotearoa NZ. Methods: We undertook a systemised review on GHG food taxes to inform four tax scenarios, including one combined with a subsidy. These scenarios were modelled to estimate lifetime impacts on quality adjusted health years (QALY), health inequities by ethnicity, GHG emissions, health system costs and food costs to the individual. Results: 28 modelling studies on food tax policies were identified. Taxes resulted in decreased consumption of the targeted foods (e.g., -15.4% in beef/ruminant consumption, N=12 studies) and an average decrease of 8.3% in GHG emissions (N=19 studies). Using this review, we conceptualized four scenarios: a GHG weighted tax on all foods; a GHG weighted tax on food groups with the highest 50% of emissions (high emitters); A GHG weighted tax on high emitters combined with a fruit and vegetable subsidy; A 20% tax on high emitters. The GHG weighted tax on all foods scenario had the largest health gains and costs savings (455,800 QALYs and NZ$8.8 billion), followed by the tax-subsidy scenario (410,400 QALYs and NZ$6.4 billion). All scenarios were associated with reduced GHG emissions (between 4.2% and 7.0% of the baseline GHG emissions from food). Age standardised per capita QALYs were between 1.6 and 2.1 times higher for Māori than non-Māori. Conclusion: Applying taxes that target foods with high GHG emissions has the potential to be effective for reducing GHG emissions and to result in co-benefits for population health. Combining a GHG food tax with a fruit and vegetable subsidy may help reduce the negative effects on household food expenditure of such a tax.

Estimating the dietary and health impact of implementing front-of-pack nutrition labeling in Canada: A macrosimulation modeling study

“…Overall, our results are consistent with previous estimations in terms of potential health gains attributable to improving diet quality overall (90,122,123), and contribute to the body of evidence supporting policies to improve the Canadian food environment, specifically implementation of a 'high in' FOPL symbol. However, the addition of other proven cost-effective policies should be considered to improve diets in Canada, such as moving from voluntary to mandatory sodium reduction targets and implementing SSB taxes, as evidence shows these initiatives could lead to further changes in purchasing behavior, health gains, and health care cost savings (124)(125)(126). For example, in Canada, introducing a 20% tax on SSBs would potentially reduce Canadian adults' energy intake by 21 kcal/day for men and 13 kcal/day for women, which could postpone 7,874 (6,630-9,118) deaths, mainly from ischemic heart disease or cancer (123); and fully meeting voluntary sodium reduction targets for processed foods would potentially reduce mean sodium intakes by 459 mg/day, which could avert or delay 2,176 (95% UI 869-3,687) deaths from CVDs (3).…”

How Many Diet-Related Non-Communicable Disease Deaths Could Be Averted or Delayed If Canadians Reduced Their Consumption of Calories Derived from Free Sugars Intake? A Macrosimulation Modeling Study

“…Evidence from other countries shows that the implementation of a mix of population-wide interventions can improve diets. Specifically, government-led initiatives such as implementing food reformulation targets, FOPL, and SSB taxation could lead to reformulated foods lower in free sugars, changes in consumers' purchasing behavior, health gains, and healthcare cost savings [59,60], as results from the present study also suggest.…”