Can an atmospherically forced ocean model accurately simulate sea surface temperature during ENSO events?

Abstract

The performance of an atmospherically forced ocean general circulation model (OGCM) in simulating daily and monthly sea surface temperature (SST) is examined during the historical El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events during the time period 1993–2003. For this purpose, we use the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) configured for the North Pacific north of 20°S at a resolution of ≈9 km. There is no assimilation of (or relaxation to) SST data and no date‐specific assimilation of any data type. The ability of the model in simulating temporal variations of SST anomalies is discussed by comparing model results with two satellite‐based SST products. The HYCOM simulation gives a basin‐averaged monthly mean bias of 0.3 °C and rms difference of 0.6 °C over the North Pacific Ocean during 1993–2003. While the model is able to simulate SST anomalies with mean biases <0.5 °C in comparison to observations during most of the ENSO events, limitations in the accuracy of atmospheric forcing (specifically, net short‐wave radiation) have some influence on the accuracy of simulations. This is specifically demonstrated during the 1998 transition period from El Niño to La Niña, when a record large SST drop of ≈7 °C occurred in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.