Can Cytokine Detection Predict the Occurrence and Outcome of aGVHD after Allo-HCT? A Retrospective Study

Abstract

Background: Many cytokines play essential roles in the occurrence and development of acute graft-versus-host-disease (aGVHD). This study aims to validate whether 11 proinflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines can be a candidate for aGVHD biomarkers to predict its occurrence and outcome. Methods: Out of 178 patients who underwent allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, we retrospectively enrolled 32 cases into the pre-transplant cohort and 45 cases into the post-transplant cohort. The serum cytokine concentrations were determined by flow cytometry. The control and experimental groups were non-aGVHD, I-II aGVHD and III-IV aGVHD groups, respectively. Risk factors and overall survival (OS) were also evaluated. Results: In the pre-transplant cohort, interleukin (IL)-2 decreased in patients with aGVHD, and IL-4 only reduced in patients with III-IV aGVHD. In the post-transplant cohort, only IL-4 increased 1.79 times more in patients with III-IV aGVHD than in the other two groups. Patients with gastrointestinal (GI) aGVHD had lower IL-2, IL-4 and IL-17F levels pre-transplant and lower IL-2 post-transplant. None of the other cytokines was significantly different. Logistic regression analysis showed that no cytokine could predict the occurrence and outcome of aGVHD. Diarrhea within 15 days post-transplant is an independent risk factor for the occurrence of aGVHD and a risk factor for a fatal outcome. Patients without diarrhea had longer survival time of 672 (586-757) days vs 444 (229-548) days and better 2-year OS (85.7% vs 46.4%) than those with diarrhea. Compared to patients with aGVHD, patients without aGVHD had a longer survival time of 618 (530-706) days vs 449 (353-545) days and better 2-year OS (76.2% vs 47.1%). Conclusions: Proinflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines can provide specific indications for the occurrence and progression of aGVHD. However, to truly guide the diagnosis and prognosis, cytokines with larger sample sizes, more detection time points and more accurate diagnostic efficacy need to be further studied.