Can lightning indicate genesis frequency of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea?

Xu, Liangtao; Cao, Xi; Wu, Renguang; Dai, Yu‐Hong; Wang, Zhibiao; Lan, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Wenjuan; Wang, Yuanhao

doi:10.1002/qj.4415

Cited by 3 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 92 publications

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“…where 11.8 , V shear denotes the magnitude of the vertical wind vector difference between 200 hPa and 850 hPa, ∂u ∂y is the meridional gradient of zonal wind at 500 hPa, ω is the 500 hPa vertical p-velocity, and η represents the 850 hPa absolute vorticity. The contribution of the four dynamical terms to the DGPI anomalies on the interdecadal time scale are assessed in the subsequent manner (Li et al 2013, Cao et al 2023:…”

Section: Data and Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Why does the TC genesis increase over the southwestern region of the SIO and decrease over the northeastern region of the SIO? To address this question, we investigate changes in the environmental parameters that are intricately tied to the TC genesis (Chia and Ropelewski 2002, Wang and Chan 2002, Cao et al 2018a, 2023, Xu et al 2023. In order to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of various large-scale environmental parameters to the TC genesis over the SIO, we employ the DGPI formulated by Wang and Murakami (2020).…”

Section: Physical Mechanisms For the Westward Shift Of Sio Tc Genesismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The potential effects of humaninduced global warming on TCs have been thoroughly reviewed recently, including the observational trends and the future projection across the globe (Knutson et al 2019(Knutson et al , 2020. However, compared to changes in TC activities over the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (Cao et al 2018a(Cao et al , 2019(Cao et al , 2023, relatively limited investigations have been conducted on changes in TCs over the SIO.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Westward shift of tropical cyclogenesis over the southern Indian Ocean

Cao,

Watanabe,

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Tropical cyclones (TCs), commonly called as cyclones in the southern Indian Ocean (SIO), represent one of the most devastating disasters in the oceanfront regions of Africa. The present study explores the long-term tendency of annual mean TC genesis location in the SIO. A notable westward shift is detected in the SIO TC genesis longitude since 1979, which is linked to an increase in the TC genesis frequency in the southwestern SIO and a decrease in the TC genesis frequency in the northeastern SIO. The dipole trend pattern of the TC genesis frequency in the SIO is intimately linked to the weakening of westerly vertical wind shear over the western SIO and the strengthening of easterly vertical wind shear over the eastern SIO, resulting from a reduced meridional temperature gradient. The weakened meridional temperature gradient is attributed to the enhanced warming of the subtropical troposphere that is a response of atmospheric temperature to global warming. Our study implies a potential increase in the risks faced by coastal and island countries in eastern Africa.

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Section: Data and Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Physical Mechanisms For the Westward Shift Of Sio Tc Genesismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Westward shift of tropical cyclogenesis over the southern Indian Ocean

Cao,

Watanabe,

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Additionally, as the primary trigger of wildfires, lightning shapes the evolution of species and ecosystems (Krause et al, 2014;Pausas & Keeley, 2009). Lightning activity is not only closely associated with mesoscale convective activities (Christian et al, 2003;Price et al, 2007) but also serves as an indicator of short-term climate prediction (Xu, et al, 2023) or climate change (Chen et al, 2021;Reeve & Toumi, 1999;Williams, 1992Williams, , 2005Williams et al, 2019Williams et al, , 2022.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Increase in Lightning Around the South China Sea Under Climate Change

Xu,

Cao,

Lan

et al. 2024

Earth and Space Science

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The impact of global warming on lightning flash rates remains relatively unknown. In this study, the South China Sea (SCS) and the surrounding areas within Southeast Asia were selected to examine the long‐term trend and future projection of lightning activity based on the currently longest satellite‐based lightning data set available and climate models. Our study revealed a reduction in the observed lightning flash rates around the SCS, with a linear trend of −0.11 fl km−2 yr−2 during 1996–2013. In contrast, the precipitation around the SCS exhibited an increasing trend and was negatively correlated with the local lightning flash rate. The sea surface temperature gradient over equatorial Pacific Ocean, latent heat flux over the equatorial Indian Ocean, local convective available potential energy, precipitation and aerosol changes collectively accounted for 82% of the variance in the lightning fluctuations over the SCS and Southeast Asia. Multiple linear regression proxies of lightning flash rates were constructed and applied to the climate models. The models indicated that lightning activity around the SCS is projected to intensify by 10% and 12% by the end of the 21st century under SSP245 and SSP370, respectively.

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“…The NIO can be separated into two basins: the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BOB). The South China Sea (SCS), located to east of the NIO, is a peripheral ocean basin that is prone to TC activity (Cao, Wu, Xu, Wang, et al., 2023; Chan, 2008; Li, 2012; Wu & Wang, 2000; Xu et al., 2023). The SCS is bordered by several countries, including China, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Zonal See‐Saw Variation of Tropical Cyclogenesis Over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal‐South China Sea

Cao,

Wu,

Wang

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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The variation of tropical cyclone (TC) formation over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and South China Sea (SCS) during the post‐monsoon season is explored during 1979–2020. A zonal see‐saw variation of TC genesis is detected between the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BOB) –SCS (BOBSCS for brevity). More (less) TCs over the AS tend to concur with fewer (more) TCs over the BOBSCS. Analyses of both the observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 outputs show that tripole sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans play a crucial role in the zonal see‐saw variation of TC genesis. Positive western Indian (WI) Ocean and tropical central and eastern Pacific (CEP) Ocean SST anomalies and negative western Pacific (WP) SST anomalies induce anomalous ascending and descending motions and high and low humidity transportation to the middle troposphere over the AS and BOBSCS, respectively. Meantime, anticyclonic vorticity anomalies appear in the BOBSCS region and negative anomalies of vertical wind shear are induced over the NIO and SCS. The combined positive contributions of upward motion, mid‐level humidity increase, and low vertical wind shear favor higher TC genesis over the AS, whereas the joint negative effects of downward motion, mid‐level water vapor decrease, and lower‐level anticyclonic vorticity anomalies result in less TC genesis over the BOBSCS. Numerical experiments show a critical role of the WI SST anomalies in the dipole pattern of vertical motion, which is crucial for the zonal dipole variation of TC genesis.

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Can lightning indicate genesis frequency of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea?

Cited by 3 publications

References 92 publications

Westward shift of tropical cyclogenesis over the southern Indian Ocean

Westward shift of tropical cyclogenesis over the southern Indian Ocean

Future Increase in Lightning Around the South China Sea Under Climate Change

A Zonal See‐Saw Variation of Tropical Cyclogenesis Over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal‐South China Sea

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