Can tidal perturbations associated with sea level variations in the western Pacific Ocean be used to understand future effects of tidal evolution?

Devlin, Adam Thomas; Jay, David A.; Talke, Stefan A.; Zaron, Edward D.

doi:10.1007/s10236-014-0741-6

Cited by 53 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 68 publications

(67 reference statements)

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“…Changes in stratification and in the thermocline have also been discussed as potential factors causing tidal changes by modifying the coupling of barotropic and internal tides (Colosi and Munk, 2006;Jay, 2009;Müller, 2011;Devlin et al, 2014). The ocean circulation off the study area is characterized by the confluence of the Brazil and Malvinas currents (Palma et al, 2008).…”

Section: Tidal Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several factors have been discussed as responsible for changes in the tidal characteristics observed in other regions. At global scale, these factors are the rise of MSL and changes in ocean stratification, while at local scale morphological changes (i.e., dredging, land reclamation) can also modify tide characteristics ( see e.g., Woodworth, 2010;Müller, 2011;Devlin et al, 2014;Hill, 2016).…”

Section: Tidal Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Long-Term Trends and Variability of Water Levels and Tides in Buenos Aires and Mar del Plata, Argentina

Santamaria-Aguilar¹,

Schuerch

Vafeidis³

et al. 2017

Front. Mar. Sci.

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We present an analysis of the long-term trends and variability of extreme water and tidal levels and the main tidal constituents using long-term records from two tide gauges in the wider region of the Rio de la Plata estuary: Buenos Aires (1905Aires ( -2013 and Mar del Plata (1956. We find significant long-term trends in both tidal levels and the main tidal constituents (M2, S2, K1, O1, and the overtide M4) from a running harmonic analysis in both locations. The tidal range decreased on average 0.63 mm y −1 , as a result of an increase of the low water levels and a decrease of the high water levels. We also find a secular decrease in the amplitude of the semi-diurnal constituents and an increase of the diurnal ones, but of different magnitudes at each location, which suggests that different processes are producing these changes. In Buenos Aires, an increase of river discharge into the estuary seems to reduce the tidal range by hampering the propagation of the tidal wave into the estuary, whereas no influence of river discharge on water and tidal levels can be detected in Mar del Plata. We believe that other factors such as thermohaline changes or the rise of mean sea-level may be responsible for the observed tidal range decrease. Despite the tidal long-term trends, we find no significant trends in the meteorological component of the tide-gauge records other than an increase in the mean sea-level. In addition, we explore teleconnections between the variability of the meteorological component of the tide-gauge records and climate drivers.

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Section: Tidal Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Tidal Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Trends and Variability of Water Levels and Tides in Buenos Aires and Mar del Plata, Argentina

Santamaria-Aguilar¹,

Schuerch

Vafeidis³

et al. 2017

Front. Mar. Sci.

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“…2) is considerable and is due primarily to bathymetric variations at basin [71], shelf [28], and local [25] scales. The temporal variability of tidal amplitudes is similarly complex, with variations observed at seasonal [59] and decadal (e.g., 18.6-year nodal cycle; [50]) timescales as well as longer-term secular trends (century to millennium, e.g., [35,69]). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Devlin et al [18] Western Pacific Ocean Global Woodworth [87] Quasi global Müller, Arbic, and Mitrovica [60] Quasi global…”

Section: Physical Mechanisms Of Tidal Range Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…As an example, Ray [69] found that M 2 amplitudes have increased in the Gulf of Maine, while Ray [70] found that the S 2 amplitudes have decreased in that location. The larger-scale studies (e.g., [18,87]) have in part been carried out in order to find regional trends, but larger-scale patterns have been elusive. Further complicating regional-to global-scale understanding is that local processes and factors often play a role in determining trends.…”

Section: Observations Of Tidal Range Changementioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatial and Temporal Variability in Tidal Range: Evidence, Causes, and Effects

Hill

2016

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Tidal range is one factor in determining the vertical location of local mean sea level, and it is also a contributor to total water levels and coastal flooding. It is therefore important to understand both the spatial distribution of tidal range and the temporal variation in tidal range, over a wide range of scales. Knowledge of historic tidal range is obtained both through observations and through modeling. This paper reviews numerous observational and modeling studies of historic tidal range variations on decadal to millennial timescales. It also discusses many of the physical processes that are responsible for these variations. Finally, this paper concludes with discussion of several modeling studies that seek to constrain future changes in tidal range in coastal environments.

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Projecting nuisance flooding in a warming climate using generalized linear models and Gaussian processes

Vandenberg-Rodes

Moftakhari

AghaKouchak

et al. 2016

J. Geophys. Res. Oceans

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Nuisance flooding corresponds to minor and frequent flood events that have significant socioeconomic and public health impacts on coastal communities. Yearly averaged local mean sea level can be used as proxy to statistically predict the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on the frequency of nuisance floods (NFs). In this study, we use generalized linear models (GLM) and Gaussian Process (GP) models combined to (i) estimate the frequency of NF associated with the change in mean sea level, and (ii) quantify the associated uncertainties via a novel and statistically robust approach. We calibrate our models to the water level data from 18 tide gauges along the coasts of United States, and after validation, we estimate the frequency of NF associated with the SLR projections in year 2030 (under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5), along with their 90% bands, at each gauge. The historical NF‐SLR data are very noisy, and show large changes in variability (heteroscedasticity) with SLR. Prior models in the literature do not properly account for the observed heteroscedasticity, and thus their projected uncertainties are highly suspect. Among the models used in this study, the Negative Binomial Distribution GLM with GP best characterizes the uncertainties associated with NF estimates; on validation data ≈93% of the points fall within the 90% credible limit, showing our approach to be a robust model for uncertainty quantification.

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Can tidal perturbations associated with sea level variations in the western Pacific Ocean be used to understand future effects of tidal evolution?

Cited by 53 publications

References 68 publications

Long-Term Trends and Variability of Water Levels and Tides in Buenos Aires and Mar del Plata, Argentina

Long-Term Trends and Variability of Water Levels and Tides in Buenos Aires and Mar del Plata, Argentina

Spatial and Temporal Variability in Tidal Range: Evidence, Causes, and Effects

Projecting nuisance flooding in a warming climate using generalized linear models and Gaussian processes

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