Canada's wildfire future: climate change below a 2°C global target avoids large increases in burned area by the end of the century

Abstract

Wildfire impacts the global carbon cycle, as well as property, harvestable timber, and public health. Canada saw a record fire season in 2023 with 14.9 Mha burned—over seven times the 1986 - 2022 average of 2.1 Mha. Here we utilize a new process-based wildfire module that explicitly represents fire weather, fuel type and availability, ignition sources, fire suppression, and vegetation’s climate response to project the future of wildfire in Canada. Under rapid climate change (shared socioeconomic pathway [SSP] 370 & 585) simulated annual burned area in the 2090s reaches 10.5 ± 2.1 to 11.7 ± 2.4 Mha, approaching the 2023 fire season total. However, climate change below a 2°C global target (SSP 126), keeps the 2090s area burned near modern (2004 - 2014) norms. Simulated area burned and carbon emissions are most sensitive to climate drivers and lightning but future lightning activity is a key uncertainty.