Carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration and hydrometeorological disasters

Abstract

We study the long-run dynamic and predictive connection between atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and the probability of hydrometeorological disasters. For a panel of 193 countries over the period 1970-2016 we estimate the probabilities of hydrometeorological disasters at country levels by means of Bayesian sampling techniques. We then separate the effects of climatological and sociodemographic factors (used as proxies for exposure and vulnerability) and other country-specific factors, from a global probability of disasters (GPOD). Finally, we subject these global probability time paths to a cointegration analysis with CO2 concentration and run projections to year 2040 of the GPOD conditional on nine Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios. We detect a stable long-term relation between CO2 accumulation and the GPOD that allows to determine projections of the latter process conditional on the former. This way, we demonstrate that generally and readily available statistical data on CO2 global atmospheric concentrations can be used as a conceptually meaningful, statistically valid and policy useful predictor of the probability of occurrence of (global) hydrometeorological disasters.

Polymer Sorbent Design for the Direct Air Capture of CO2

“…The anthropogenic release of CO 2 is primarily associated with the combustion of fossil fuels for energy production, chemical manufacturing, and agricultural practices . The increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration leads to higher average global temperatures and more severe weather events, due to greenhouse effects that can have disastrous consequences for global ecosystems and society. − In a recent technical report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it has been projected that the atmospheric concentration could double by the year of 2100 if the proper measures have not been placed, which could result in further increased risks to our planet. Therefore, it becomes an urgent need to mitigate the adverse consequences of unnatural increases in CO 2 concentrations, which can be achieved through two key pillars of activities toward a carbon neutral society: (1) Avoiding CO 2 emissions through transitioning to sustainable energy sources like solar, wind, or alternative fuels, and the development of technologies that can prevent the escape of CO 2 directly from the source of emission (power plants, production facilities, etc.…”

Using Eddy Covariance Observations to Determine the Carbon Sequestration Characteristics of Subalpine Forests in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

“…The rise in temperatures at 80°S latitude could result in the melting of glaciers, leading to a sea-level rise of 5 m (Mercer, 1978). By the year 2040, most countries are projected to experience at least one annual disaster with a 50% or higher probability (Fortunato et al, 2022). Addressing the greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide and reducing its impact is a crucial challenge facing human society today.…”