Cascading climate effects in deep reservoirs: Full assessment of physical and biogeochemical dynamics under ensemble climate projections and ways towards adaptation

Abstract

We coupled twenty-first century climate projections with a well-established water quality model to depict future ecological changes of Rappbode Reservoir, Germany. Our results document a chain of climate-driven effects propagating through the aquatic ecosystem and interfering with drinking water supply: intense climate warming (RCP8.5 scenario) will firstly trigger a strong increase in water temperatures, in turn leading to metalimnetic hypoxia, accelerating sediment nutrient release and finally boosting blooms of the cyanobacterium Planktothrix rubescens. Such adverse water quality developments will be suppressed under RCP2.6 and 6.0 indicating that mitigation of climate change is improving water security. Our results also suggested surface withdrawal can be an effective adaptation strategy to make the reservoir ecosystem more resilient to climate warming. The identified consequences from climate warming and adaptation strategies are relevant to many deep waters in the temperate zone, and the conclusion should provide important guidances for stakeholders to confront potential climate changes.