Causes of the Global Warming Observed since the 19th Century

Ring, Michael; Lindner, Daniela; Cross, Emily F.; Schlesinger, Michael E.

doi:10.4236/acs.2012.24035

Cited by 75 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Michael Ring and his colleagues at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign argue that Earth might in fact be less sensitive to greenhouse gases than previously believed 9 . Whereas the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide levels would ultimately increase global temperatures by 2-4.5 °C, with a best estimate of 3 °C, the Illinois group says that the rise is more likely to be between 1.5 °C and 2 °C.…”

Section: Initial Ideasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change: The forecast for 2018 is cloudy with record heat

Tollefson¹

2013

Nature

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Doug Smith took the biggest gamble of his career. After more than ten years of work with fellow modellers at the Met Office's Hadley Centre in Exeter, UK, Smith published a detailed prediction of how the climate would change over the better part of a decade 1 . His team forecasted that global warming would stall briefly and then pick up speed, sending the planet into record-breaking territory within a few years.The Hadley prediction has not fared particularly well. Six years on, global temperatures have yet to shoot up as it projected. Despite this underwhelming result, such near-term forecasts have caught on among many climate modellers, who are now trying to predict how global conditions will evolve over the next several years and beyond. Eventually, they hope to offer forecasts that will enable humanity to prepare for the decade

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Section: Initial Ideasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change: The forecast for 2018 is cloudy with record heat

Tollefson¹

2013

Nature

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“…∆T 2x is the change in the equilibrium (net incoming radiation at the top of Earth's atmosphere R = 0) ∆T s due to the radiative forcing resulting from a doubling of the preindustrial CO 2 concentration (R = 3.71 Wm -2 ). We have determined ∆T 2x from the observed ∆T s compiled by four research groups: (1) Hadley Centre/Climate Research Unit (∆T 2x = 1.61˚C); (2) NASA (∆T 2x = 1.45˚C); (3) NOAA (∆T 2x = 1.99˚C); and (4) Japan Meteorological Agency (∆T 2x = 2.01˚C) [13]. In FP1 we presented ∆T s individually for the ∆T 2x values of (1) -(3), while in FP2 and FP3 we did so individually for all four ∆T 2x values.…”

Section: Fair Plan To Safeguard Earth's Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Fair Plan 4: Safeguarding the Climate of “This Island Earth”

Schlesinger¹,

Ring²,

Lindner³

et al. 2014

ACS

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Earth is the only habitable planet in the solar system and beyond in interstellar space for a distance that would take us at least 80,000 years to traverse at the speed of Voyager 1. Thus our home planet is "This Island Earth". Here we use our Simple (engineering-type) Climate Model to calculate the change in global-mean near-surface air temperature from 1765 through the third millennium for historical emissions and two scenarios of future emissions of greenhouse gases: (1) a Reference scenario of unabated emissions, and (2) our Fair Plan scenario wherein emissions are phased out to zero from 2020 to 2100. The temperature change for the Reference cases increases to 5.2˚C (9.4˚F) in 2225 and remains there for at least 40 human generations. By design, the temperature change for the Fair Plan increases only to 2˚C (3.6˚F)-the limit adopted by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change "to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system"-in 2082 and thereafter decreases through the remainder of the millennium. Accordingly, we need to adopt the Fair Plan to safeguard the climate of "This Island Earth".

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“…La principal causa del calentamiento global son las concentraciones de GEI desde la revolución industrial ocurrida en el siglo XIX causando el aumento en la temperatura media de 0.8 °C hasta 2 °C en algunas regiones del mundo (Ring et al, 2012;Adedeji et al, 2014;Lane, 2015). En el quinto informe de evaluación del grupo intergubernamental de expertos sobre el cambio climático (IPCC) la comunidad científica definió un conjunto de cuatro nuevos escenarios para representar la presencia de los gases efecto invernadero como promotores del cambio climático global, denominados trayectorias de concentración representativas (RCP) por sus siglas en inglés.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…The main cause of global warming is GEI concentrations since the industrial revolution in the 19th century, causing an increase in the average temperature of 0.8 °C to 2 °C in some regions of the world (Ring et al, 2012;Adedeji et al, 2014;Lane, 2015). In the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the scientific community defined a set of four new scenarios to represent the presence of greenhouse gases as promoters of global climate change, called representative concentration trajectories (RCP) for its acronym in English.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Escenarios de cómo el cambio climático modificará las zonas productoras de aguacate ‘hass’ en Michoacán

Bravo¹,

García²,

Corral³

et al. 2017

Remexca

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Since climate is a factor with strong influence on the phenology and physiology of crops, it is a priority to dimension the threat to climate change. There is evidence that such a change in the climate pattern will affect the production of fruit species such as avocado. To study the possible impact of climate change on the main producing region of avocado cv. Hass was the objective of the present work. Different climate databases were collected and were quantified changes of main meteorological variables when comparing the current climatology and future scenarios, two paths representative concentration [RCP] of greenhouse gases (GEI) (4.5 and 8.5) for climatologies 2030, 2050 and 2070. This allowed to evaluate the impact in some phenological stages of the crop. The changes will be manifested with greater intensity towards the end of the century for the two RCP, with route 8.5 being the one that presents the most outstanding changes, particularly in temperature. This allowed us to identify the impact of climate change on the flowering stage in two climates (warm sub-humid and sub-humid), which will certainly affect the quantity and quality of fruit. The phenology of 'Hass' avocado cultivated in Michoacán is vulnerable to ResumenSiendo el clima un factor con fuerte influencia sobre la fenología y fisiología de los cultivos, es prioritario dimensionar la amenaza ante el cambio climático. Existe evidencia que dicho cambio en el patrón climático afectará la producción de especies frutales como aguacate. Estudiar el posible impacto del cambio climático en la principal región productora de aguacate cv. Hass fue el objetivo del presente trabajo. Se acopiaron diferentes bases de datos climáticas y fueron cuantificados los cambios de las principales variables meteorológicas al comparar la climatología actual fenología del aguacate 'Hass' cultivado en Michoacán es vulnerable al cambio climático por dos amenazas (aumento de la temperatura máxima y retraso de la inflexión de la temperatura mínima). Los resultados apuntan hacia mejores condiciones futuras para el cultivo de 'Hass' en el clima semicálido subhúmedo.Palabras clave: Persea americana Mill., ecofisiología, escenarios de cambio climático, fenología. IntroducciónPara valorar si el cambio climático modificará las zonas productoras de aguacate (Persea americana Mill.) cv. Hass en Michoacán es necesario identificar y cuantificar la amenaza y la vulnerabilidad asociada. El cambio climático es la variación del clima respecto a los valores medios históricos. Esta variación debe ser cuantificada estadísticamente y mantener su tendencia por periodos mayores a 10 años. Entre los causantes de dicha variación están el cambio de uso de suelo y el aumento en las concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) en la atmósfera (IPCC, 2013).La principal causa del calentamiento global son las concentraciones de GEI desde la revolución industrial ocurrida en el siglo XIX causando el aumento en la temperatura media de 0.8 °C hasta 2 °C en algunas regiones del mundo (Rin...

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Causes of the Global Warming Observed since the 19th Century

Cited by 75 publications

References 42 publications

Climate change: The forecast for 2018 is cloudy with record heat

Climate change: The forecast for 2018 is cloudy with record heat

Fair Plan 4: Safeguarding the Climate of “This Island Earth”

Escenarios de cómo el cambio climático modificará las zonas productoras de aguacate ‘hass’ en Michoacán

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