Cave mine pillar stability analysis using machine learning

Abstract

The large scale of cave mines leads to many challenges, including operational logistics and geomechanics design. In current practice, pillar stability assessment relies almost exclusively on stress analysis. However, stability is also affected by other factors including those related to operational aspects of the mining method, the effects of which are difficult to account for during the design stages. In this paper we present a case study of the application of a machine learning approach to evaluate the influence of these operational factors on pillar stability at the Chuquicamata underground cave mine in northern Chile. Due to the likely multi-factorial damage process leading to collapses and considering the different pillar conditions, a tree-based machine learning method was used and analysed to improve the understanding of the relative importance of the various contributing factors. Unlike stress analysis methods, it does not require any a priori knowledge of failure mechanisms, nor the calibration of associated controlling parameters. The proposed random forest model predicted pillar collapses with 80% accuracy despite limited samples to model from. The main contributing factors to collapses were found to be related to available pillar volume, cave front geometry, and time under abutment stress conditions. The effects and interactions of such factors were also studied, showing that careful and improved control over operational conditions can significantly reduce the likelihood of pillar collapses. These conclusions could not have been obtained from stress analysis alone, illustrating the complementary nature of conventional stress analysis and machine learning approaches.