Changes in extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and its association with global mean temperature and ENSO

Lü, Mingquan; Wu, Shengjun; Chen, Ji‐Long; Chen, Chundi; Wen, Zhaofei; Huang, Yuanyang

doi:10.1002/joc.5311

Cited by 37 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…The results of trend analysis in this study are generally in accordance with previous studies (Su et al ., 2006; Lü et al ., 2017) that the Rx1day and Rx3day show positive trends in the downstream of the YRB. However, it should be noted that some inconsistencies are found too.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…Lü et al . (2017) demonstrated that there is a significant negative correlation between December–January–February annual and seasonal maximum daily precipitation and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The aforementioned studies mainly concentrate on exploring the relationships between climate indices and extreme precipitation in the YRB at seasonal or annual scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multiscale teleconnection analysis of monthly total and extreme precipitations in the Yangtze River Basin using ensemble empirical mode decomposition

Tao

Qin

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The multiscale analysis of precipitation teleconnections with climate indices is of great significance to better understand the regional response of the precipitation variability under the different time scales to global climate change. In this study, the inherent cycles of monthly total and extreme precipitations during 1965-2016 in the Yangtze River basin (YRB) and the climate indices influencing their periodic oscillations and long-term trends are investigated by the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition, lag correlation analysis and stepwise variable selection. Results show that the total and extreme precipitations have experienced increasing long-term trends in the western region of the upper reach of YRB (U-YRB) and most parts of the middle and lower reaches of YRB (ML-YRB), and decreasing trends in the middle region of U-YRB. The identified climate indices significantly affecting total and extreme precipitations are almost identical in the U-YRB and ML-YRB. The sea surface temperature anomalies over East China Sea (ECS), South China Sea (SCS), Kuroshio (KC) and Bay of Bengal (BB) with specific time lags, solar flux with 12-month lag, and the simultaneous global average temperature anomalies (GT) and trans-Niño index have strong linkages with precipitation components under the particular time scales in the YRB. Specifically, the ECS, SCS, KC and BB with specific time lags are identified as effective indicators of periodic oscillations of total and extreme precipitations, while the simultaneous GT is powerful for capturing their long-term trends. The identified climate indices are further demonstrated to provide significant predictive information for total and extreme precipitations and their periodic oscillations. Moreover, their forecast ability is higher in the U-YRB than in the ML-YRB, which detects a strong correlation with the randomness of precipitation. Additionally, monthly total precipitation and its periodic oscillations can be predicted better than extreme precipitation and its periodic oscillations by the identified climate indices.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiscale teleconnection analysis of monthly total and extreme precipitations in the Yangtze River Basin using ensemble empirical mode decomposition

Tao

Qin

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Based on the above analysis, extreme precipitation (P95 and E-NE) has changed significantly in the mean and distribution from the cooling to warming environment. Lü et al (2017) found the global temperature played more roles in affecting extreme precipitation (daily maximum precipitation) than local temperatures in the Yangtze River Basin [60]. Figure 9 plotted the changes in the precipitation amount for nine precipitation intensities responding to per 1 °C increase in global surface temperature from 1959 to 2013 (∆ /∆ ).…”

Section: Changes In P95 E-ne Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation under a Changing Climate in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA)

et al. 2018

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Abstract:The Three Gorges Dam (TGD) is one of the largest hydroelectric projects in the world. Monitoring the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation offers valuable information for adaptation and mitigation strategies and reservoir management schemes. This study examined variations in extreme precipitation over the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA) in China to investigate the potential role of climate warming and Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). The trends in extreme precipitation over the TGRA were investigated using the iterative-based Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope estimator, based on weather station daily data series and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data series. The mean and density distribution of extreme precipitation indices between pre-dam and post -dam, pre-1985 and post-1985, and near and distant reservoir area were assessed by the Mann-Whitney test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The ratio of extreme precipitation to non-extreme precipitation became larger. The precipitation was characterized by increases in heavy precipitation as well as decreases in light and moderate rain. Comparing extreme precipitation indices between pre-1985 (cooling) and post-1985 (warming) indicated extreme precipitation has changed to become heavier. Under climate warming, the precipitation amount corresponding to more than the 95th percentile increased at the rate of 6.48%/ • C. Results from comparing extreme precipitation for the pre-and post-dam, near reservoir area (NRA) and away from the reservoir area (ARA) imply an insignificant role of the TGR on rainfall extremes over the TGRA. Moreover, the impoundment of TGR did not exert detectable impacts on the surface relative humidity (RH) and water vapor pressure (WP).

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“…According to previous studies, the SPI-3 is normally used to assess agricultural droughts, SPI-6 is important in studying hydrological droughts while the SPI-12 and SPI-24 are used in detecting groundwater droughts (Elkollaly et al 2018). This method is recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (Lü et al 2017) (Svoboda and Fuchs 2017b) and is widely used for drought analysis. Detailed information about the method is much explained in previous studies (Ayuso et al 2015;Du et al 2013;Elkollaly et al 2018;Zhim et al 2019).…”

Section: Standardized Precipitation Index (Spi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Drought Event, its Trend and Teleconnected Factors Over Burundi, Central East Africa

Nkunzimana¹,

Wang²,

Abdallah³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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This study assessed the drought events across Burundi for 37 years ranging from 1981 to 2017. The drought assessment was conducted using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1, 3, 6 and 12-month time scales. The Mann Kendall and Modified Mann Kendall trend tests and Sen’s slope statistic tests were used to analyse the spatiotemporal drought trend. The overall analysis of SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI-12 outputs revealed that the Northern part of Burundi was the most threatened by dry events, and more than 80% of the extremely and severely dry events occurred within the period 1993–2000. The drought magnitude varied highly in the short rains season (SOND) than during the long rains season (MAM) specifically during the 1990s decade. The cumulative frequency of extremely dry events was very high in the North with 5.2%, 6.1% and 7.4 % at 3, 6 and 12-month time scales respectively. Likewise, the northern part experienced both short, medium and long dry periods, thus 88 consecutive dry months within only 8 years. The North and East regions exhibited a positive increasing trend over annual and seasonal time scales at both 3, 6, and 12 months of SPI analysis while the mountainous region and the South experienced a significant decreasing trend. The first abrupt point issued by forward and backward sequential statistics occurred in 1990, the year corresponding to the beginning of the driest period. Dry years are associated with circulation anomalies over the Indian Ocean and La Nina events.

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Changes in extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and its association with global mean temperature and ENSO

Cited by 37 publications

References 73 publications

Multiscale teleconnection analysis of monthly total and extreme precipitations in the Yangtze River Basin using ensemble empirical mode decomposition

Multiscale teleconnection analysis of monthly total and extreme precipitations in the Yangtze River Basin using ensemble empirical mode decomposition

Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation under a Changing Climate in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA)

Assessment of Drought Event, its Trend and Teleconnected Factors Over Burundi, Central East Africa

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