Changes in Runoff in the Source Region of the Yellow River Basin Based on CMIP6 Data under the Goal of Carbon Neutrality

Abstract

China is committed to achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. This study projected the changes in climate and runoff in the source region of the Yellow River Basin for 2021–2060 under lower carbon emission pathways (SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5) using a statistically downscaled climate dataset and the SWAT hydrological model. Results showed that the climate will become warmer and wetter from 2021–2060. In comparison with the baseline period (1995–2014), in terms of the ensemble mean, annual mean air temperature, annual precipitation, and annual runoff will increase by 1.3 °C and 1.6 °C, by 11.1% and 11.2%, and by 12.8% and 11.9% under SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, respectively. Moreover, the seasonal pattern of runoff was projected to change. The proportion of monthly runoff to the annual total will decrease by 0.6–1.0% in summer but increase by 0.1–1.0% during the period from January to April and September to December. The multimodel ensemble mean (MEM) of extremely high monthly flow (Q10) will increase by 3.5–13.4% in the flood season (June to August) and water storage season (September to December). The MEM of extremely low monthly flow (Q90) will increase by 19.4–26.2% from February to April but decrease by 5.0–8.9% in January, May, and December. Thus, the warmer and wetter climate from 2021–2060 will likely cause flatter seasonal distribution of runoff, lower risk of water scarcity at the annual scale and of drought from February to April, but higher risk both of flood in the flood season and of drought in December, January, and May. Generally, the flatter pattern of runoff would likely alleviate water scarcity in the dry and water storage seasons to some degree, and the increase in monthly runoff in the water storage season will benefit hydroelectric power generation and agriculture and animal husbandry production. However, in some years, the increase in Q10 in the flood season will likely increase flood prevention pressure, and the decrease in Q90 in May will likely obstruct grass revival.